Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: US Open, hard - 1/64-finals

Date: 31 August 2026, Monday

Location: USTA Billie Jean King NTC (New York, NY)

Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	HBO Max


	Brandon Nakashima		Sebastian Baez

	1	2
	1.13	6.00	Watch
	1.13	5.75
	1.10	7.00
	1.14	6.98
	1.14	5.37	Watch
	1.12	6.50
	1.15	5.55	Watch
	1.12	6.20
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.13 ↓ (1.29)	6.17 ↑ (3.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 33.50

The best margin for this event is 2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Brandon Nakashima
84.5%

Sebastian Baez
15.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

74.4%

25.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Brandon Nakashima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Brandon Nakashima's performance.

Sebastian Baez has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Sebastian Baez might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	0%	40%

Brandon Nakashima - Sebastian Baez Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Nakashima will win (votes: 3 - 60%). Baez will win (votes: 2 - 40%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Nakashima (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 30 Games - under (2.43) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:0

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Preview

Nakashima is ranked ATP: 22. Baez is ranked ATP: 50.

Nakashima is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Baez has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Baez may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Nakashima is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Nakashima won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Brandon Nakashima - the odds 1.29 are the expected chance of winning is 74.4%, but this team recently wins 60% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Brandon Nakashima
ATP Cincinnati
22.08.26	Brandon Nakashima - Francis Tiafoe	0:2 ✺
21.08.26	Taylor Harry Fritz - Brandon Nakashima	1:2 ✺
19.08.26	Nuno Borges - Brandon Nakashima	1:2 ✺
18.08.26	Brandon Nakashima - Daniil Medvedev	2:1 ✺
16.08.26	Brandon Nakashima - Aleksandar Kovacevic	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 LWWWW
- Sebastian Baez
ATP Winston-Salem
26.08.26	Juan Manuel Cerundolo - Sebastian Baez	Baez S. Retired ✺
25.08.26	Hugo Grenier - Sebastian Baez	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
23.08.26	Sebastian Baez - Hubert Hurkacz	1:2 ✺
22.08.26	Sebastian Baez - Lloyd Harris	2:0 ✺
21.08.26	Sebastian Baez - Chak Lam Coleman Wong	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 ?WLWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Wimbledon
01.07.24	Sebastian Baez - Brandon Nakashima	0:3

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