Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Cancun 2, hard - Final

Date: 23 August 2026, Sunday


	Sebastian Baez		Hubert Hurkacz

	1	2
	3	1.36	Watch
	2.75	1.4
	2.80	1.41	Watch
	3.01	1.43
	2.97	1.35	Watch
	2.95	1.39
	2.77	1.39	Watch
	2.80	1.38
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.88 ↑ (2.83)	1.39 ↑ (1.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.00

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sebastian Baez
32.5%

Hubert Hurkacz
67.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.8%

67.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.7%

65.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sebastian Baez has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Hubert Hurkacz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sebastian Baez than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hubert Hurkacz than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

Sebastian Baez - Hubert Hurkacz Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Baez is ranked ATP: 53. Hurkacz is ranked ATP: 69.

Currently, both players are in excellent shape.

Hurkacz may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Hurkacz is a strong favorite.

We predict that Hurkacz will win today's game, with odds of 1.37.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Baez won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:4. (average 0.5:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sebastian Baez
ATP Challenger
22.08.26	Sebastian Baez - Lloyd Harris	2:0 ✺
21.08.26	Sebastian Baez - Chak Lam Coleman Wong	2:0 ✺
20.08.26	Sebastian Baez - Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez	2:0 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
16.08.26	Learner Tien - Sebastian Baez	2:0 ✺
14.08.26	Sebastian Baez - Grigor Dimitrov	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 WWWLW
- Hubert Hurkacz
ATP Challenger
22.08.26	Hubert Hurkacz - Moez Echargui	2:0 ✺
21.08.26	Roman Safiullin - Hubert Hurkacz	0:2 ✺
20.08.26	Henrique Rocha - Hubert Hurkacz	1:2 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
15.08.26	Tommy Paul - Hubert Hurkacz	2:1 ✺
14.08.26	Sho Shimabukuro - Hubert Hurkacz	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Exhibition Boodles Challenge Men
24.06.26	Hubert Hurkacz - Sebastian Baez	2:0
ATP Roma
14.05.24	Hubert Hurkacz - Sebastian Baez	2:1

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