Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Cancun 2, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 21 August 2026, Friday


	Sebastian Baez		Chak Lam Coleman Wong

	1	2
	1.62	2.20	Watch
	1.65	2.10
	1.58	2.30
	1.68	2.31
	1.61	2.17
	1.66	2.25
	1.60	2.20	Watch
	1.62	2.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.63 ↓ (1.74)	2.21 ↑ (2.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.50

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sebastian Baez
57.6%

Chak Lam Coleman Wong
42.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.8%

46.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.7%

41.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sebastian Baez has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

Chak Lam Coleman Wong has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sebastian Baez than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chak Lam Coleman Wong than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Sebastian Baez - Chak Lam Coleman Wong Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -2 Games - Baez (1.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Baez (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Baez is ranked ATP: 53. Wong is ranked ATP: 93.

In recent matches, Baez has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Wong is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Wong may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sebastian Baez
ATP Challenger
20.08.26	Sebastian Baez - Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez	2:0 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
16.08.26	Learner Tien - Sebastian Baez	2:0 ✺
14.08.26	Sebastian Baez - Grigor Dimitrov	2:1 ✺
ATP Montreal
05.08.26	Zizou Bergs - Sebastian Baez	2:1 ✺
04.08.26	Sebastian Baez - Mattia Bellucci	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 WLWLW
- Chak Lam Coleman Wong
ATP Challenger
20.08.26	Alan Magadan - Chak Lam Coleman Wong	1:2 ✺
19.08.26	Alexandre Muller - Chak Lam Coleman Wong	0:2 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
14.08.26	Chak Lam Coleman Wong - Daniel Altmaier	1:2 ✺
12.08.26	Chak Lam Coleman Wong - Otto Virtanen	2:0 ✺
11.08.26	Chak Lam Coleman Wong - Seong Chan Hong	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WWLWW

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