Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Cancun 2, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 22 August 2026, Saturday


	Sebastian Baez		Lloyd Harris

	1	2
	1.53	2.38	Watch
	1.60	2.20
	1.5	2.41	Watch
	1.63	2.42
	1.59	2.22	Watch
	1.61	2.37
	1.45	2.55	Watch
	1.58	2.23
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.56 ↓ (1.84)	2.35 ↑ (1.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.50

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sebastian Baez
60.1%

Lloyd Harris
39.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.1%

49.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.8%

45.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sebastian Baez has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sebastian Baez's performance.

Lloyd Harris has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Lloyd Harris might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sebastian Baez than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sebastian Baez that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lloyd Harris than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Lloyd Harris could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Sebastian Baez - Lloyd Harris Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Baez (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Baez is ranked ATP: 53. Harris is ranked ATP: 175.

In recent matches, Baez has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Harris is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Harris may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Baez might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Baez won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sebastian Baez
ATP Challenger
21.08.26	Sebastian Baez - Chak Lam Coleman Wong	2:0 ✺
20.08.26	Sebastian Baez - Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez	2:0 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
16.08.26	Learner Tien - Sebastian Baez	2:0 ✺
14.08.26	Sebastian Baez - Grigor Dimitrov	2:1 ✺
ATP Montreal
05.08.26	Zizou Bergs - Sebastian Baez	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 WWLWL
- Lloyd Harris
ATP Challenger
21.08.26	Vit Kopriva - Lloyd Harris	0:2 ✺
20.08.26	Lloyd Harris - Pablo Llamas Ruiz	Llamas Ruiz P. Retired ✺
19.08.26	Darwin Blanch - Lloyd Harris	0:2 ✺
18.08.26	Lloyd Harris - Laslo Djere	2:0 ✺
17.08.26	Lloyd Harris - Abedallah Shelbayh	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 W?WWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP US Open
25.08.25	Sebastian Baez - Lloyd Harris	0:3

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