Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Vienna (Austria), hard (indoor) - 1/16-finals

Date: 23 October 2024, Wednesday


	Brandon Nakashima		Tommy Paul

	1	2
	3.2	1.36	Watch
	2.9	1.4
	3.1	1.36	Watch
	3.19	1.39
	3.16	1.38	Watch
	2.9	1.4	Watch
	3.02	1.39	Watch
	3.1	1.36
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.07 ↑ (2.42)	1.38 ↓ (1.57)

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Brandon Nakashima
31%

Tommy Paul
69%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.3%

60.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.1%

56.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Brandon Nakashima has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Brandon Nakashima's form might have worsened.

Tommy Paul has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Tommy Paul's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brandon Nakashima than the current prediction. (+12.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Brandon Nakashima, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tommy Paul than the current prediction. (-12.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Tommy Paul, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
17.6%	0%	82.4%

Brandon Nakashima - Tommy Paul Predictions

Users Predictions: Tommy Paul will win (13 of 16 users predict this - 81.25%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.12% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Nakashima is ranked ATP: 38. Paul is ranked ATP: 13.

Nakashima is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Paul is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Nakashima could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Paul is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's Paul to win the game is with odds 1.38.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Nakashima won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 6:4 (average 1.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Brandon Nakashima
ATP Stockholm
16.10.24	Stanislas Wawrinka - Brandon Nakashima	2:0 ✺
ATP Shanghai
05.10.24	Yosuke Watanuki - Brandon Nakashima	2:0 ✺
ATP Tokyo
27.09.24	Brandon Nakashima - Ugo Humbert	0:2 ✺
26.09.24	Francis Tiafoe - Brandon Nakashima	0:2 ✺
ATP Hangzhou
23.09.24	Marin Cilic - Brandon Nakashima	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 LLLWL
- Tommy Paul
ATP Stockholm
20.10.24	Tommy Paul - Grigor Dimitrov	2:0 ✺
19.10.24	Stanislas Wawrinka - Tommy Paul	0:2 ✺
18.10.24	Tommy Paul - Miomir Kecmanovic	2:0 ✺
16.10.24	Tommy Paul - Laslo Djere	2:0 ✺
ATP Shanghai
09.10.24	Tommy Paul - Tomas Machac	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Montreal
08.08.24	Tommy Paul - Brandon Nakashima	1:2
ATP Lyon
25.05.23	Tommy Paul - Brandon Nakashima	0:2
ATP Hertogenbosch
07.06.22	Brandon Nakashima - Tommy Paul	2:1
ATP Challenger
12.09.19	Brandon Nakashima - Tommy Paul	0:2

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