Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Rome, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 12 May 2025, Monday


	Tommy Paul		Tomas Machac

	1	2
	1.73	2.1	Watch
	1.65	2.2	Watch
	1.71	2.16	Watch
	1.68	2.33
	1.66	2.16	Watch
	1.67	2.2	Watch
	1.69	2.19	Watch
	1.61	2.14
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↓ (1.74)	2.19 ↑ (2.11)

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tommy Paul
56.6%

Tomas Machac
43.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.8%

45.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.7%

45.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tommy Paul has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

Tomas Machac has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tommy Paul than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tomas Machac than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
78.3%	0%	21.7%

Tommy Paul - Tomas Machac Predictions

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. Paul will win (votes: 16 - 76.2%). Machac will win (votes: 5 - 23.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Paul: 58% – 94.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 Games - Paul (1.68) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Tommy Paul will win (10 of 12 users predict this - 83.33%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Paul (votes: 11 - 84.6%). Machac (votes: 2 - 15.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Paul is ranked ATP: 12. Machac is ranked ATP: 20.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Machac may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Paul could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Paul won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:4. (average 1:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tommy Paul
ATP Roma
10.05.25	Tommy Paul - Roberto Bautista-Agut	2:0 ✺
ATP Madrid
30.04.25	Jack Draper - Tommy Paul	2:0 ✺
29.04.25	Karen Khachanov - Tommy Paul	1:2 ✺
26.04.25	Joao Fonseca - Tommy Paul	0:2 ✺
ATP Houston
05.04.25	Tommy Paul - Jenson Brooksby	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WLWWL
- Tomas Machac
ATP Roma
10.05.25	Learner Tien - Tomas Machac	0:2 ✺
ATP Madrid
26.04.25	Jacob Fearnley - Tomas Machac	2:1 ✺
ATP Barcelona
14.04.25	Tomas Machac - Francis Tiafoe	Canceled ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
09.04.25	Tomas Machac - Alex De Minaur	1:2 ✺
08.04.25	Tomas Machac - Sebastian Baez	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 WL?LW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Shanghai
09.10.24	Tommy Paul - Tomas Machac	1:2
ATP Tokyo
27.09.24	Tommy Paul - Tomas Machac	1:2

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