Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Acapulco, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 27 February 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: Acapulco 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Australia	15:00	beIN Sports 1
Brazil	01:00	ESPN 3
Bulgaria	06:00	Max Sport 1
Czech Republic	05:00	Oneplay, Premier Sport 2
Denmark	05:00	TV2 Play
Finland	06:00	MTV Katsomo+
Germany	05:00	Sky Sport Tennis
Netherlands	05:00	Ziggo Sport 4
Portugal	04:00	Sport TV6
Romania	06:00	Prima Sport PPV 1
Sweden	05:00	TV4 Play
Ukraine	06:00	Setanta Sports+
United Kingdom	04:00	Sky Sports Tennis


	Francis Tiafoe		Brandon Nakashima

	1	2
	1.91	1.91	Watch
			Watch
	1.88	1.89	Watch
	1.95	1.95
	1.99	1.82	Watch
	1.91	1.91	Watch
	1.86	1.94	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.92 ↑ (1.9)	1.9 (1.9)

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Francis Tiafoe
49.8%

Brandon Nakashima
50.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.7%

54.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Francis Tiafoe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Brandon Nakashima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Francis Tiafoe than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brandon Nakashima than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
91.7%	0%	8.3%

Francis Tiafoe - Brandon Nakashima Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 Sets - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 25.5 Games - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Francis Tiafoe will win (22 of 24 users predict this - 91.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 80.61% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Francis Tiafoe will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Tiafoe is ranked ATP: 28. Nakashima is ranked ATP: 29.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tiafoe won 4.

Right now, both players are showing solid form.

Tiafoe may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Tiafoe won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 12:5. (average 1.7:0.7).

Last Results with these Odds

Brandon Nakashima - the odds 1.9 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Francis Tiafoe
ATP Acapulco
26.02.26	Francis Tiafoe - Mattia Bellucci	2:0 ✺
25.02.26	Francis Tiafoe - Aleksandar Kovacevic	2:1 ✺
24.02.26	Francis Tiafoe - Nuno Borges	2:0 ✺
ATP Delray Beach
20.02.26	Learner Tien - Francis Tiafoe	2:1 ✺
19.02.26	Zachary Svajda - Francis Tiafoe	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WWWLW
- Brandon Nakashima
ATP Acapulco
26.02.26	Valentin Vacherot - Brandon Nakashima	1:2 ✺
25.02.26	Brandon Nakashima - Patrick Kypson	2:0 ✺
23.02.26	Brandon Nakashima - Elias Ymer	2:0 ✺
ATP Delray Beach
18.02.26	Brandon Nakashima - Chak Lam Coleman Wong	0:2 ✺
17.02.26	Brandon Nakashima - Marin Cilic	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Houston
05.04.25	Brandon Nakashima - Francis Tiafoe	0:2
ATP Tokyo
26.09.24	Francis Tiafoe - Brandon Nakashima	0:2
ATP Atlanta
29.07.22	Brandon Nakashima - Francis Tiafoe	0:2
ATP Miami
25.03.22	Francis Tiafoe - Brandon Nakashima	2:1
ATP Indian Wells
13.03.22	Brandon Nakashima - Francis Tiafoe	0:2
ATP Acapulco
16.03.21	Brandon Nakashima - Francis Tiafoe	1:2
ATP Challenger
06.02.20	Francis Tiafoe - Brandon Nakashima	2:1

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