Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Kigali, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 4 March 2026, Wednesday


	Calvin Hemery		Ryan Nijboer

	1	2
	1.44	2.63	Watch
	1.43	2.65	Watch
	1.40	2.74	Watch
	1.43	2.62	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.43 ↑ (1.34)	2.66 ↓ (3)

The best margin for this event is 7.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Calvin Hemery
65.1%

Ryan Nijboer
34.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.1%

30.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

71%

29%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Calvin Hemery has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

Ryan Nijboer has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Calvin Hemery than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Calvin Hemery, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ryan Nijboer than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ryan Nijboer, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Calvin Hemery - Ryan Nijboer Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5 Sets - Nijboer (1.67) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Nijboer (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Hemery is ranked ATP: 316. Nijboer is ranked ATP: 524.

Recent performances by Hemery have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Nijboer is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Hemery may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Hemery is a strong favorite.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Calvin Hemery
ATP Challenger
03.03.26	Jay Clarke - Calvin Hemery	1:2 ✺
17.02.26	Timofey Skatov - Calvin Hemery	2:0 ✺
16.02.26	Max Houkes - Calvin Hemery	0:2 ✺
15.02.26	Cyril Vandermeersch - Calvin Hemery	0:2 ✺
08.02.26	Calvin Hemery - Felix Balshaw	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WLWWL
- Ryan Nijboer
ATP Challenger
03.03.26	Max Houkes - Ryan Nijboer	0:2 ✺
02.03.26	Ryan Nijboer - Maik Steiner	2:0 ✺
01.03.26	Ryan Nijboer - Matteo Covato	2:1 ✺
ITF Tournaments
13.02.26	Sergi Perez Contri - Ryan Nijboer	2:0 ✺
12.02.26	Oscar Pinto Sansano - Ryan Nijboer	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 WWWLW

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