Match Info
ATP - SINGLES: Montreal, hard - 1/16-finalsDate: 6 August 2026, Thursday
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Cameron Norrie |
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Alex De Minaur |
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- The most likely Over/Under: 22.50
- The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by
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Cameron Norrie
36.7% | Alex De Minaur
63.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Cameron Norrie has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Cameron Norrie's performance.Alex De Minaur has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Alex De Minaur might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cameron Norrie than the current prediction. (-8.9%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Cameron Norrie that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alex De Minaur than the current prediction. (+8.9%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Alex De Minaur could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.Predictions
Users Predictions:
10 users predict this event. Norrie will win (votes: 2 - 20%). De Minaur will win (votes: 8 - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%) for De Minaur: 55.2% – 100%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Alex De Minaur will win (2 of 2 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2 
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Preview
Norrie is ranked ATP: 37. De Minaur is ranked ATP: 7.In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Norrie won 3.Norrie is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).De Minaur has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).Norrie may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days. De Minaur will hold a modest advantage in this match.In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Norrie won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:8. (average 1.4:1.1).
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Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
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