Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Barcelona, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 14 April 2026, Tuesday


	Camilo Ugo Carabelli		Karen Khachanov

	1	2
	2.63	1.5	Watch
	2.6	1.48	Watch
	2.66	1.53
	2.67	1.45	Watch
	2.6	1.5
	2.57	1.51	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.62 ↓ (2.73)	1.5 ↑ (1.44)

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Camilo Ugo Carabelli
36.3%

Karen Khachanov
63.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.6%

65.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.4%

69.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Camilo Ugo Carabelli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

Karen Khachanov has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Camilo Ugo Carabelli than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Camilo Ugo Carabelli that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Karen Khachanov than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Karen Khachanov could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Karen Khachanov Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Ugo Carabelli is ranked ATP: 63. Khachanov is ranked ATP: 14.

Recent performances by Ugo Carabelli have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Khachanov is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Khachanov may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Khachanov will hold a modest advantage in this match.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Karen Khachanov - the odds 1.44 are the expected chance of winning is 65.45%, but this team recently wins 86% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Camilo Ugo Carabelli
ATP Marrakech
04.04.26	Rafael Jodar - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	2:0 ✺
03.04.26	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Luca Van Assche	2:1 ✺
02.04.26	Ignacio Buse - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	1:2 ✺
31.03.26	Timofey Skatov - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	1:2 ✺
ATP Miami
20.03.26	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Sebastian Korda	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 LWWWL
- Karen Khachanov
ATP Monte Carlo
06.04.26	Arthur Rinderknech - Karen Khachanov	2:0 ✺
Exhibition UTS Championship Men
04.04.26	Grigor Dimitrov - Karen Khachanov	2:1 ✺
03.04.26	Casper Ruud - Karen Khachanov	3:1 ✺
ATP Miami
22.03.26	Martin Landaluce - Karen Khachanov	2:0 ✺
20.03.26	Roberto Bautista-Agut - Karen Khachanov	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LLLLW

Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Karen Khachanov: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide