Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Marrakech, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 3 April 2026, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Czech-republic	Oneplay, Premier Sport 1
Denmark	TV2 Play
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 4, Ziggo Sport
Poland	Polsat Sport 3
Portugal	Sport TV3
Romania	Prima Sport 3
United-kingdom	Sky Sports Tennis


	Camilo Ugo Carabelli		Luca Van Assche

	1	2
	1.62	2.3	Watch
	1.57	2.25	Watch
	1.66	2.35
	1.58	2.31	Watch
	1.62	2.3	Watch
	1.62	2.36	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.61 ↓ (1.78)	2.31 ↑ (1.98)

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Camilo Ugo Carabelli
58.9%

Luca Van Assche
41.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.8%

47.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53%

47%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Camilo Ugo Carabelli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Camilo Ugo Carabelli's performance.

Luca Van Assche has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Luca Van Assche might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Camilo Ugo Carabelli than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Camilo Ugo Carabelli that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luca Van Assche than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Luca Van Assche could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
34.6%	0%	65.4%

Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Luca Van Assche Predictions

Users Predictions: 26 users predict this event. Ugo Carabelli will win (votes: 9 - 34.6%). Van Assche will win (votes: 17 - 65.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Van Assche: 47.1% – 83.7%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Luca Van Assche will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Ugo Carabelli is ranked ATP: 67. Van Assche is ranked ATP: 109.

Both players have been playing unpredictably.

Ugo Carabelli may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Camilo Ugo Carabelli
ATP Marrakech
02.04.26	Ignacio Buse - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	1:2 ✺
31.03.26	Timofey Skatov - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	1:2 ✺
ATP Miami
20.03.26	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Sebastian Korda	0:2 ✺
19.03.26	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	1:2 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
06.03.26	Brandon Nakashima - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 WWLWL
- Luca Van Assche
ATP Marrakech
02.04.26	Luca Van Assche - Tallon Griekspoor	2:1 ✺
31.03.26	Luca Van Assche - Hugo Gaston	2:0 ✺
ATP Miami
17.03.26	Yannick Hanfmann - Luca Van Assche	2:1 ✺
16.03.26	Benjamin Willwerth - Luca Van Assche	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
12.03.26	Luca Van Assche - Raphael Collignon	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WWLWL

Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Luca Van Assche: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide