Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Estoril, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 25 July 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Czech-republic	Oneplay, Premier Sport 2
Denmark	TV2 Play
Finland	MTV Katsomo+
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 4
Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Tennis


	Luca Van Assche		Hugo Gaston

	1	2
	1.57	2.38	Watch
	1.53	2.45	Watch
	1.63	2.28	Watch
	1.63	2.49
	1.58	2.38	Watch
	1.61	2.30	Watch
	1.59	2.40	Watch
	1.50	2.40
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.58 ↓ (1.62)	2.39 ↑ (2.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.50

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luca Van Assche
60.2%

Hugo Gaston
39.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.7%

41.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.6%

42.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luca Van Assche has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

Hugo Gaston has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luca Van Assche than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hugo Gaston than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
77.4%	0%	22.6%

Luca Van Assche - Hugo Gaston Predictions

Users Predictions: 30 users predict this event. Van Assche will win (votes: 23 - 76.7%). Gaston will win (votes: 7 - 23.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Van Assche: 61.6% – 91.8%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 22.5 Games - over (1.93) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.5 Sets - Van Assche (2.42) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Luca Van Assche will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Van Assche (votes: 5 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Van Assche is ranked ATP: 78. Gaston is ranked ATP: 109.

Van Assche is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Gaston has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Van Assche will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Van Assche won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Luca Van Assche - the odds 1.62 are the expected chance of winning is 58.67%, but this team recently wins 53% of matches with these odds.

Hugo Gaston - the odds 2.3 are the expected chance of winning is 41.33%, but this team recently wins 36% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luca Van Assche
ATP Estoril
24.07.26	Andrey Rublev - Luca Van Assche	1:2 ✺
23.07.26	Luca Van Assche - Pablo Carreno-Busta	2:1 ✺
20.07.26	Frederico Ferreira Silva - Luca Van Assche	1:2 ✺
ATP Umag
15.07.26	Luca Van Assche - Titouan Droguet	1:2 ✺
13.07.26	Dusan Lajovic - Luca Van Assche	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.7 WWWLW
- Hugo Gaston
ATP Estoril
24.07.26	Tiago Torres - Hugo Gaston	0:2 ✺
22.07.26	Hugo Gaston - Titouan Droguet	2:0 ✺
21.07.26	Hugo Gaston - Damir Dzumhur	Dzumhur D. Retired ✺
ATP Bastad
14.07.26	Daniel Altmaier - Hugo Gaston	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
12.07.26	Jan Choinski - Hugo Gaston	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WW?LL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Marrakech
31.03.26	Luca Van Assche - Hugo Gaston	2:0

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