Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Rio de Janeiro, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 17 February 2026, Tuesday


	Camilo Ugo Carabelli		Roman Andres Burruchaga

	1	2
	1.73	2.1	Watch
	1.72	2.1
	1.73	2.08	Watch
	1.78	2.13
	1.73	2.06	Watch
	1.8	2
	1.73	2.1	Watch
	1.71	2.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↑ (1.53)	2.08 ↓ (2.49)

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Camilo Ugo Carabelli
54.4%

Roman Andres Burruchaga
45.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.9%

38.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.7%

43.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Camilo Ugo Carabelli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Camilo Ugo Carabelli's form might have worsened.

Roman Andres Burruchaga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Roman Andres Burruchaga's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Camilo Ugo Carabelli than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Roman Andres Burruchaga than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
54.5%	0%	45.5%

Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Roman Andres Burruchaga Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Ugo Carabelli will win (votes: 6 - 54.5%). Burruchaga will win (votes: 5 - 45.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ugo Carabelli: 25.1% – 83.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Ugo Carabelli (votes: 2 - 40%). Burruchaga (votes: 3 - 60%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 19.5 Games - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Ugo Carabelli is ranked ATP: 47. Burruchaga is ranked ATP: 104.

Ugo Carabelli is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Burruchaga's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Ugo Carabelli may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Ugo Carabelli is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ugo Carabelli won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:2. (average 1.4:0.4).

Last Results with these Odds

Camilo Ugo Carabelli - the odds 1.53 are the expected chance of winning is 61.89%, but this team recently wins 78% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Camilo Ugo Carabelli
ATP Buenos Aires
13.02.26	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Sebastian Baez	0:2 ✺
12.02.26	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Mariano Navone	2:0 ✺
10.02.26	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Francisco Comesana	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
08.02.26	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Roman Andres Burruchaga	2:0 ✺
07.02.26	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Hugo Dellien	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 LWWWW
- Roman Andres Burruchaga
ATP Buenos Aires
11.02.26	Roman Andres Burruchaga - Tomas Martin Etcheverry	1:2 ✺
10.02.26	Roman Andres Burruchaga - Laslo Djere	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
08.02.26	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Roman Andres Burruchaga	2:0 ✺
07.02.26	Chun Hsin Tseng - Roman Andres Burruchaga	0:2 ✺
06.02.26	Roman Andres Burruchaga - Pedro Boscardin Dias	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
08.02.26	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Roman Andres Burruchaga	2:0
01.02.25	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Roman Andres Burruchaga	Ugo Carabelli C. retired
03.11.23	Roman Andres Burruchaga - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	2:1
23.09.23	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Roman Andres Burruchaga	2:0
ITF Tournaments
28.02.20	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Roman Andres Burruchaga	2:0

Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Roman Andres Burruchaga: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide