Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Australian Open, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 29 January 2026, Thursday

Location: Rod Laver Arena (Melbourne)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	ESPN
Belgium	HBO Max, HBO Max
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	HBO Max
Brazil	ESPN
Bulgaria	HBO Max
Canada	RDS App
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	HBO Max
Czech-republic	HBO Max
Denmark	HBO Max
Finland	HBO Max
France	HBO Max
Hungary	HBO Max
Mexico	ESPN
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Netherlands	HBO Max
North-macedonia	HBO Max
Norway	HBO Max
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Poland	HBO Max
Romania	HBO Max
Serbia	HBO Max
Slovenia	HBO Max
Spain	HBO Max, Movistar Plus+
Sweden	HBO Max
United-kingdom	Discovery+
Usa	ESPN USA
Venezuela	ESPN


	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia		Alexander Zverev

	1	2
	1.17	5	Watch
	1.17	5.2	Watch
	1.18	5.57
	1.06	8.86	Watch
	1.17	5
	1.19	5.19	Watch
	1.15	5.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.16 ↓ (1.2)	5.76 ↑ (4.67)

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
83.3%

Alexander Zverev
16.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

79.6%

20.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

Alexander Zverev has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
86.1%	0%	13.9%

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Alexander Zverev Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 31.5 Games - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -5.5 Games - Alcaraz Garfia (1.90) (votes: 2 - 50%) .

O/U 3.5 Sets - over (votes: 4 - 66.7%) .

AH -1.5 Sets - Alcaraz Garfia (1.37) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 9.5 Games, 1st Set - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +2.5 Sets - Zverev (1.58) (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

AH +1.5 Games, 1st Set - Zverev (2.19) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Carlos Alcaraz Garfia will win (30 of 35 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 74.12% – 97.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Carlos Alcaraz Garfia will win (14 of 16 users predict this - 87.5%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 29 Selected Experts predict this event. Alcaraz Garfia (votes: 18 - 62.1%). Zverev (votes: 11 - 37.9%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:0

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Preview

Alcaraz Garfia is ranked ATP: 1. Zverev is ranked ATP: 3.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Alcaraz Garfia won 3.

In recent matches, both players have secured multiple victories.

In this match, Alcaraz Garfia is the obvious favorite.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Alcaraz Garfia won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 17:16. (average 1.4:1.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - the odds 1.2 are the expected chance of winning is 79.56%, but this team recently wins 53% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
ATP Australian Open
27.01.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Alex De Minaur	3:0 ✺
24.01.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Tommy Paul	3:0 ✺
22.01.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Corentin Moutet	3:0 ✺
20.01.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Yannick Hanfmann	3:0 ✺
18.01.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Adam Walton	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WWWWW
- Alexander Zverev
ATP Australian Open
26.01.26	Alexander Zverev - Learner Tien	3:1 ✺
25.01.26	Alexander Zverev - Francisco Cerundolo	3:0 ✺
23.01.26	Alexander Zverev - Cameron Norrie	3:1 ✺
21.01.26	Alexander Zverev - Alexandre Muller	3:1 ✺
17.01.26	Alexander Zverev - Gabriel Diallo	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Cincinnati
16.08.25	Alexander Zverev - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	0:2
ATP World Tour Finals
15.11.24	Alexander Zverev - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	2:0
ATP Roland Garros
09.06.24	Alexander Zverev - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	2:3
ATP Indian Wells
14.03.24	Alexander Zverev - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	0:2
ATP Australian Open
24.01.24	Alexander Zverev - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	3:1
ATP World Tour Finals
13.11.23	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Alexander Zverev	1:2
ATP US Open
06.09.23	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Alexander Zverev	3:0

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