Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Australian Open, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 24 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Melbourne Park (Melbourne)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	ESPN
Belgium	HBO Max, HBO Max
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	HBO Max
Brazil	ESPN
Bulgaria	HBO Max
Canada	RDS App
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	HBO Max
Czech-republic	HBO Max
Denmark	HBO Max
Finland	HBO Max
France	HBO Max
Hungary	HBO Max
Mexico	ESPN
Moldova	HBO Max
Montenegro	HBO Max
Netherlands	HBO Max
North-macedonia	HBO Max
Norway	HBO Max
Peru	ESPN
Poland	HBO Max
Romania	HBO Max
Serbia	HBO Max
Slovenia	HBO Max
Spain	HBO Max
Sweden	HBO Max
United-kingdom	Discovery+
Usa	ESPN USA
Venezuela	ESPN


	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia		Tommy Paul

	1	2
	1.1	7	Watch
	1.1	7.2	Watch
	1.11	8.05
	1.1	7.56	Watch
	1.1	7
	1.1	7.25	Watch
	1.11	6.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.1 ↑ (1.08)	7.25 ↓ (8.09)

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
86.8%

Tommy Paul
13.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

88.3%

11.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

Tommy Paul has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Tommy Paul Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Alcaraz Garfia will win (votes: 10 - 66.7%). Paul will win (votes: 5 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Alcaraz Garfia: 42.8% – 90.6%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.5 Sets - over (votes: 2 - 50%) .

AH -5.5 Games - Alcaraz Garfia (1.47) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Carlos Alcaraz Garfia will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Alcaraz Garfia (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:0

#ad

Preview

Alcaraz Garfia is ranked ATP: 1. Paul is ranked ATP: 20.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Alcaraz Garfia won 4.

Alcaraz Garfia is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Paul is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Paul may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Alcaraz Garfia is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Alcaraz Garfia won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 14:6. (average 1.8:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
ATP Australian Open
22.01.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Corentin Moutet	3:0 ✺
20.01.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Yannick Hanfmann	3:0 ✺
18.01.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Adam Walton	3:0 ✺
Exhibition Others Matches Tennis Men
10.01.26	Jannik Sinner - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	0:2 ✺
08.12.25	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Joao Fonseca	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WWWWW
- Tommy Paul
ATP Australian Open
22.01.26	Tommy Paul - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	Davidovich Fokina A. retired ✺
20.01.26	Tommy Paul - Thiago Augustin Tirante	3:0 ✺
18.01.26	Tommy Paul - Aleksandar Kovacevic	3:0 ✺
ATP Adelaide
15.01.26	Tomas Machac - Tommy Paul	2:1 ✺
15.01.26	Aleksandar Vukic - Tommy Paul	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 ?WWLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Roland Garros
03.06.25	Tommy Paul - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	0:3
ATP Olympic Games
01.08.24	Tommy Paul - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	0:2
ATP Wimbledon
09.07.24	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Tommy Paul	3:1
ATP Cincinnati
17.08.23	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Tommy Paul	2:1
ATP Toronto
11.08.23	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Tommy Paul	1:2
ATP Miami
28.03.23	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Tommy Paul	2:0
ATP Montreal
10.08.22	Tommy Paul - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	2:1

Upcoming Matches