Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Australian Open, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 22 January 2026, Thursday

Location: Melbourne Park (Melbourne)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	ESPN
Belgium	HBO Max, HBO Max
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	HBO Max
Brazil	ESPN
Bulgaria	HBO Max
Canada	RDS App
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	HBO Max
Czech-republic	HBO Max
Denmark	HBO Max
Finland	HBO Max
France	HBO Max
Hungary	HBO Max
Mexico	ESPN
Moldova	HBO Max
Montenegro	HBO Max
Netherlands	HBO Max
North-macedonia	HBO Max
Norway	HBO Max
Peru	ESPN
Poland	HBO Max
Romania	HBO Max
Serbia	HBO Max
Slovenia	HBO Max
Spain	HBO Max
Sweden	HBO Max
United-kingdom	Discovery+
Usa	ESPN USA
Venezuela	ESPN


	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia		Corentin Moutet

	1	2
	1.01	21	Watch
	1.02	13
	1.01	16	Watch
	1.02	14.29	Watch
	1.02	15
	1.02	16.4	Watch
	1.02	14
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.02 ↑ (1.02)	15.67 ↑ (13.41)

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
93.9%

Corentin Moutet
6.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

93%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Corentin Moutet has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	0%	16.7%

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Corentin Moutet Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Alcaraz Garfia will win (votes: 5 - 83.3%). Moutet will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Alcaraz Garfia (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 28.5 Games - under (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

H/A, 1st Set - Alcaraz Garfia (1.11) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -9.5 Games - Alcaraz Garfia (1.89) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Alcaraz Garfia (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:0

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Preview

Alcaraz Garfia is ranked ATP: 1. Moutet is ranked ATP: 37.

Alcaraz Garfia is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Moutet may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Alcaraz Garfia is the clear favorite.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - the odds 1.02 are the expected chance of winning is 92.96%, but this team recently wins 100% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
ATP Australian Open
20.01.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Yannick Hanfmann	3:0 ✺
18.01.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Adam Walton	3:0 ✺
Exhibition Others Matches Tennis Men
10.01.26	Jannik Sinner - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	0:2 ✺
08.12.25	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Joao Fonseca	2:1 ✺
07.12.25	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Francis Tiafoe	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WWWWL
- Corentin Moutet
ATP Australian Open
21.01.26	Michael Zheng - Corentin Moutet	Zheng M. retired ✺
17.01.26	Tristan Schoolkate - Corentin Moutet	0:3 ✺
ATP Metz
04.11.25	Corentin Moutet - Aleksandar Vukic	1:2 ✺
ATP Paris
29.10.25	Corentin Moutet - Alexander Bublik	0:2 ✺
28.10.25	Corentin Moutet - Reilly Opelka	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 ?WLLW

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