Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Monte Carlo, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 7 April 2026, Tuesday


	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia		Sebastian Baez

	1	2
	1.03	15	Watch
	1.03	13	Watch
	1.04	15.84
	1.03	12.73	Watch
	1.03	13	Watch
	1.03	14.3	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.03 ↓ (1.04)	13.98 ↑ (11.38)

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
93.1%

Sebastian Baez
6.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

91.6%

8.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

Sebastian Baez has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Sebastian Baez Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Alcaraz Garfia will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Baez will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Alcaraz Garfia is ranked ATP: 1. Baez is ranked ATP: 65.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Alcaraz Garfia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Alcaraz Garfia is the clear favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Alcaraz Garfia won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:0. (average 1.8:0).

Last Results with these Odds

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - the odds 1.04 are the expected chance of winning is 91.64%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
ATP Miami
22.03.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Sebastian Korda	1:2 ✺
20.03.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Joao Fonseca	2:0 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
14.03.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Daniil Medvedev	0:2 ✺
12.03.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Cameron Norrie	2:0 ✺
11.03.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Casper Ruud	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LWLWW
- Sebastian Baez
ATP Monte Carlo
06.04.26	Sebastian Baez - Stanislas Wawrinka	2:0 ✺
ATP Bucharest
03.04.26	Sebastian Baez - Titouan Droguet	0:2 ✺
31.03.26	Sebastian Baez - Vilius Gaubas	2:0 ✺
ATP Miami
20.03.26	Adam Walton - Sebastian Baez	2:0 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
09.03.26	Daniil Medvedev - Sebastian Baez	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Tokyo
25.09.25	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Sebastian Baez	2:0
ATP US Open
30.08.22	Sebastian Baez - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	Baez S. retired
ATP Next Gen Finals
12.11.21	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Sebastian Baez	3:0

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