Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Chengdu, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 22 September 2025, Monday

Where to Watch on TV:


Denmark	TV2 Play
Finland	MTV Katsomo+
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 5


	Brandon Nakashima		Alejandro Tabilo

	1	2
	1.53	2.5	Watch
			Watch
	1.5	2.55
	1.48	2.84
	1.47	2.69	Watch
	1.61	2.35	Watch
	1.61	2.12
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.53 ↓ (1.61)	2.51 ↑ (2.12)

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Brandon Nakashima
62.1%

Alejandro Tabilo
37.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.8%

43.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.4%

46.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Brandon Nakashima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Brandon Nakashima's performance.

Alejandro Tabilo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Alejandro Tabilo might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brandon Nakashima than the current prediction. (-8.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Brandon Nakashima that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alejandro Tabilo than the current prediction. (+8.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Alejandro Tabilo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
45%	0%	55%

Brandon Nakashima - Alejandro Tabilo Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Nakashima will win (votes: 8 - 42.1%). Tabilo will win (votes: 11 - 57.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Tabilo: 35.7% – 80.1%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5 Sets - Nakashima (1.19) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Alejandro Tabilo will win (7 of 9 users predict this - 77.78%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Nakashima (votes: 3 - 30%). Tabilo (votes: 7 - 70%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Nakashima is ranked ATP: 33. Tabilo is ranked ATP: 112.

Nakashima has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Tabilo is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Tabilo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Nakashima is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Nakashima won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 1.5:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Brandon Nakashima
ATP Chengdu
21.09.25	Marcos Giron - Brandon Nakashima	1:2 ✺
19.09.25	Juncheng Shang - Brandon Nakashima	0:2 ✺
ATP US Open
27.08.25	Brandon Nakashima - Jerome Kym	2:3 ✺
24.08.25	Brandon Nakashima - Jesper De Jong	3:2 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
13.08.25	Brandon Nakashima - Alexander Zverev	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 WWLWL
- Alejandro Tabilo
ATP Chengdu
21.09.25	Christopher OConnell - Alejandro Tabilo	1:2 ✺
19.09.25	Alejandro Tabilo - Luciano Darderi	2:0 ✺
18.09.25	Jordan Thompson - Alejandro Tabilo	0:2 ✺
17.09.25	Alejandro Tabilo - Lloyd Harris	2:1 ✺
16.09.25	Alejandro Tabilo - Rigele Te	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Davis Cup World Group
11.09.24	Brandon Nakashima - Alejandro Tabilo	2:1
ATP Miami
21.03.24	Alejandro Tabilo - Brandon Nakashima	2:1

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