Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Tokyo, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 25 September 2025, Thursday


	Jordan Thompson		Brandon Nakashima

	1	2
	2.75	1.44	Watch
			Watch
	2.75	1.44	Watch
	2.98	1.44
	2.85	1.40	Watch
			Watch
	2.81	1.44	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.83 ↓ (3.03)	1.43 ↑ (1.36)

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jordan Thompson
33.6%

Brandon Nakashima
66.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.9%

69.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.6%

70.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jordan Thompson has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

Brandon Nakashima has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jordan Thompson than the current prediction. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brandon Nakashima than the current prediction. (+4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70%	0%	30%

Jordan Thompson - Brandon Nakashima Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Jordan Thompson will win (votes: 7 - 70%). Nakashima will win (votes: 3 - 30%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Jordan Thompson: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 10.5 Games, 1st Set - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Brandon Nakashima will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Jordan Thompson is ranked ATP: 78. Nakashima is ranked ATP: 33.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Jordan Thompson won 3.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Jordan Thompson may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Nakashima is the team to beat.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Jordan Thompson won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 7:11. (average 1:1.6).

Last Results with these Odds

Brandon Nakashima - the odds 1.36 are the expected chance of winning is 69.1%, but this team recently wins 83% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jordan Thompson Tennis
ATP Chengdu
18.09.25	Jordan Thompson - Alejandro Tabilo	0:2 ✺
Davis Cup World Group
14.09.25	Jordan Thompson - Raphael Collignon	Canceled ✺
13.09.25	Jordan Thompson - Zizou Bergs	0:2 ✺
ATP US Open
27.08.25	Jordan Thompson - Adrian Mannarino	1:3 ✺
24.08.25	Jordan Thompson - Corentin Moutet	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 L?LLW
- Brandon Nakashima
ATP Chengdu
22.09.25	Brandon Nakashima - Alejandro Tabilo	0:2 ✺
21.09.25	Marcos Giron - Brandon Nakashima	1:2 ✺
19.09.25	Juncheng Shang - Brandon Nakashima	0:2 ✺
ATP US Open
27.08.25	Brandon Nakashima - Jerome Kym	2:3 ✺
24.08.25	Brandon Nakashima - Jesper De Jong	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Roma
09.05.25	Jordan Thompson - Brandon Nakashima	Nakashima B. walkover
ATP Wimbledon
03.07.24	Brandon Nakashima - Jordan Thompson	3:0
03.07.23	Jordan Thompson - Brandon Nakashima	3:2
ATP Atlanta
25.07.22	Brandon Nakashima - Jordan Thompson	2:1
ATP Dallas
09.02.22	Jordan Thompson - Brandon Nakashima	2:0
ATP Atlanta
30.07.21	Brandon Nakashima - Jordan Thompson	2:0
ATP Los Cabos
23.07.21	Jordan Thompson - Brandon Nakashima	1:2

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