Match Info

Date: 17 October 2020, Saturday


	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia		Mario Vilella Martinez

	1	2
	1.5	2.5	Watch
	1.48	2.45
	1.47	2.6	Watch
	1.45	2.5
	1.47	2.8
	1.45	2.75	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.47 ↓ (1.59)	2.6 ↑ (2.28)

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
63.9%

Mario Vilella Martinez
36.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.9%

41.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62%

38%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

Mario Vilella Martinez has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carlos Alcaraz Garfia than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mario Vilella Martinez than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
89.7%	0%	10.3%

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Mario Vilella Martinez Predictions

Users Predictions: Carlos Alcaraz Garfia will win (35 of 39 users predict this - 89.74%).
Confidence interval (95%): 80.22% – 99.26%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Vilella Martinez has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Alcaraz Garfia is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Alcaraz Garfia could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Vilella Martinez will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Vilella Martinez won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
ATP Challenger
16.10.20	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Juan Pablo Ficovich	2:1 ✺
15.10.20	Daniel Elahi Galan - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	1:2 ✺
13.10.20	Ramkumar Ramanathan - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	0:2 ✺
11.10.20	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Damir Dzumhur	2:1 ✺
11.10.20	Andrea Collarini - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WWWWW
- Mario Vilella Martinez
ATP Challenger
16.10.20	Steven Diez - Mario Vilella Martinez	0:2 ✺
15.10.20	Mario Vilella Martinez - Malek Jaziri	2:0 ✺
13.10.20	Diego Augusto Barreto Sanchez - Mario Vilella Martinez	0:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
13.10.20	Mats Rosenkranz - Mario Vilella Martinez	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
08.10.20	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Mario Vilella Martinez	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
08.10.20	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Mario Vilella Martinez	2:1

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