Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Basel, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 24 October 2025, Friday


	Casper Ruud		Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

	1	2
	1.5	2.63	Watch
			Watch
	1.48	2.6	Watch
	1.52	2.49
	1.51	2.50	Watch
	1.5	2.67	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.5 ↑ (1.45)	2.58 ↓ (2.75)

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Casper Ruud
63.2%

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
36.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.4%

34.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

69.4%

30.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Casper Ruud has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Casper Ruud than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Casper Ruud, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alejandro Davidovich Fokina than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
89.5%	0%	10.5%

Casper Ruud - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +4.5 Games - Davidovich Fokina (1.30) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Casper Ruud will win (17 of 19 users predict this - 89.47%).
Confidence interval (95%): 75.67% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Casper Ruud will win (8 of 10 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Ruud (votes: 8 - 72.7%). Davidovich Fokina (votes: 3 - 27.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Ruud is ranked ATP: 11. Davidovich Fokina is ranked ATP: 18.

Ruud is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Davidovich Fokina's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Ruud may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Ruud could have a small edge in this match.

We predict that Ruud will win today's game, with odds of 1.45.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ruud won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:9. (average 2.2:1.8).

Last Results with these Odds

Casper Ruud - the odds 1.45 are the expected chance of winning is 65.4%, but this team recently wins 73% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Casper Ruud
ATP Basel
23.10.25	Casper Ruud - Stanislas Wawrinka	2:0 ✺
22.10.25	Casper Ruud - Quentin Halys	2:0 ✺
ATP Stockholm
19.10.25	Ugo Humbert - Casper Ruud	0:2 ✺
18.10.25	Denis Shapovalov - Casper Ruud	0:2 ✺
17.10.25	Sebastian Korda - Casper Ruud	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 WWWWW
- Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
ATP Basel
22.10.25	Jenson Brooksby - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	1:2 ✺
20.10.25	Lorenzo Sonego - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	0:2 ✺
ATP Brussels
17.10.25	Raphael Collignon - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2:0 ✺
15.10.25	Marcos Giron - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	1:2 ✺
ATP Shanghai
06.10.25	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Daniil Medvedev	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Roland Garros
30.05.24	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Casper Ruud	2:3
ATP Miami
24.03.24	Casper Ruud - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2:0
ATP Toronto
10.08.23	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Casper Ruud	2:1
ATP Roland Garros
04.06.21	Casper Ruud - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2:3
ATP Next Gen Finals
06.11.19	Casper Ruud - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	3:2

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