Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Shanghai, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 6 October 2025, Monday

Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	Premier Sport 1


	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina		Daniil Medvedev

	1	2
	2.75	1.44	Watch
			Watch
	2.7	1.47	Watch
	2.67	1.54
	2.61	1.48	Watch
			Watch
	2.81	1.46	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.71 ↓ (2.75)	1.48 ↑ (1.37)

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
35.3%

Daniil Medvedev
64.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.3%

66.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.8%

71.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

Daniil Medvedev has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alejandro Davidovich Fokina than the current prediction. (-6.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alejandro Davidovich Fokina that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Daniil Medvedev than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Daniil Medvedev could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
28.6%	0%	71.4%

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Daniil Medvedev Predictions

Users Predictions: 42 users predict this event. Davidovich Fokina will win (votes: 12 - 28.6%). Medvedev will win (votes: 30 - 71.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Medvedev: 57.7% – 85.1%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

H/A, 1st Set - Medvedev (1.60) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.5 Games - Medvedev (1.67) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +2.5 Games - Davidovich Fokina (1.95) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 21 Games - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Daniil Medvedev will win (16 of 21 users predict this - 76.19%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 24 Selected Experts predict this event. Davidovich Fokina (votes: 6 - 25%). Medvedev (votes: 18 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Davidovich Fokina is ranked ATP: 20. Medvedev is ranked ATP: 18.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Davidovich Fokina won 1.

Davidovich Fokina has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Medvedev is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Medvedev may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Medvedev could have a small edge in this match.

We predict that Medvedev will win today's game, with odds of 1.48.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Davidovich Fokina won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 4:13. (average 0.6:1.9).

Last Results with these Odds

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - the odds 2.75 are the expected chance of winning is 33.25%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
ATP Shanghai
04.10.25	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Matteo Arnaldi	2:0 ✺
ATP Beijing
28.09.25	Daniil Medvedev - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2:0 ✺
25.09.25	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	2:0 ✺
ATP US Open
27.08.25	Arthur Rinderknech - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	3:2 ✺
24.08.25	Alexander Shevchenko - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 WLWLW
- Daniil Medvedev
ATP Shanghai
04.10.25	Dalibor Svrcina - Daniil Medvedev	0:2 ✺
ATP Beijing
30.09.25	Learner Tien - Daniil Medvedev	Medvedev D. retired ✺
29.09.25	Daniil Medvedev - Alexander Zverev	2:0 ✺
28.09.25	Daniil Medvedev - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2:0 ✺
26.09.25	Daniil Medvedev - Cameron Norrie	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 W?WWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Beijing
28.09.25	Daniil Medvedev - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2:0
ATP Montreal
08.08.24	Daniil Medvedev - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	1:2
ATP Dubai
29.02.24	Daniil Medvedev - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2:0
ATP Indian Wells
15.03.23	Daniil Medvedev - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2:0
ATP Rotterdam
14.02.23	Daniil Medvedev - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2:1
ATP Madrid
05.05.21	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Daniil Medvedev	1:2

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