Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Basel, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 20 October 2025, Monday


	Lorenzo Sonego		Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

	1	2
	2.5	1.53	Watch
	2.46	1.6
	2.41	1.54	Watch
	2.41	1.57	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.45 ↑ (2.2)	1.56 ↓ (1.67)

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lorenzo Sonego
39%

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
61%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.2%

56.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.7%

57.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lorenzo Sonego has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lorenzo Sonego than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alejandro Davidovich Fokina than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
21.4%	0%	78.6%

Lorenzo Sonego - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Sonego (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Davidovich Fokina (votes: 5 - 62.5%).

Users Predictions: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina will win (11 of 14 users predict this - 78.57%).
Confidence interval (95%): 57.08% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Sonego is ranked ATP: 47. Davidovich Fokina is ranked ATP: 20.

Both players are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Davidovich Fokina may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Davidovich Fokina might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Sonego won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:1. (average 0.7:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lorenzo Sonego
ATP Stockholm
17.10.25	Ugo Humbert - Lorenzo Sonego	2:1 ✺
16.10.25	Lorenzo Sonego - Aleksandar Kovacevic	2:0 ✺
15.10.25	Arthur Fery - Lorenzo Sonego	0:2 ✺
ATP Shanghai
01.10.25	Lorenzo Sonego - Yannick Hanfmann	1:2 ✺
ATP Beijing
26.09.25	Lorenzo Sonego - Alexander Zverev	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LWWLL
- Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
ATP Brussels
17.10.25	Raphael Collignon - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2:0 ✺
15.10.25	Marcos Giron - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	1:2 ✺
ATP Shanghai
06.10.25	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Daniil Medvedev	0:2 ✺
04.10.25	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Matteo Arnaldi	2:0 ✺
ATP Beijing
28.09.25	Daniil Medvedev - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Eastbourne
25.06.24	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Lorenzo Sonego	Canceled
ATP Dubai
14.03.21	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Lorenzo Sonego	Canceled
ATP Challenger
08.09.19	Lorenzo Sonego - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2:1

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