Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - 1/64-finals

Date: 23 April 2025, Wednesday


	Christopher OConnell		Camilo Ugo Carabelli

	1	2
	2.38	1.57	Watch
	2.3	1.6	Watch
	2.38	1.59	Watch
	2.25	1.7
	2.15	1.69	Watch
	2.38	1.57	Watch
	2.31	1.62	Watch
	2.38	1.59
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.32 ↓ (2.41)	1.62 ↑ (1.48)

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Christopher OConnell
41.1%

Camilo Ugo Carabelli
58.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38%

62%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.3%

64.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Christopher OConnell has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

Camilo Ugo Carabelli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Christopher OConnell than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Christopher OConnell that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Camilo Ugo Carabelli than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Camilo Ugo Carabelli could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
18.7%	0%	81.2%

Christopher OConnell - Camilo Ugo Carabelli Predictions

Users Predictions: Camilo Ugo Carabelli will win (13 of 15 users predict this - 86.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.47% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Camilo Ugo Carabelli will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

OConnell is ranked ATP: 87. Ugo Carabelli is ranked ATP: 59.

Both players are now playing unstable.

Ugo Carabelli will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Camilo Ugo Carabelli - the odds 1.48 are the expected chance of winning is 61.95%, but this team recently wins 70% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Christopher OConnell
ATP Munich
12.04.25	Christopher OConnell - Chun Hsin Tseng	0:2 ✺
ATP Bucharest
04.04.25	Christopher OConnell - Marton Fucsovics	0:2 ✺
03.04.25	Nicolas Jarry - Christopher OConnell	1:2 ✺
01.04.25	Dusan Lajovic - Christopher OConnell	0:2 ✺
ATP Miami
19.03.25	Christopher OConnell - Roberto Carballes Baena	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 LLWWL
- Camilo Ugo Carabelli
ATP Barcelona
12.04.25	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Daniel Elahi Galan	Canceled ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
07.04.25	Alexandre Muller - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	2:0 ✺
06.04.25	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Hamad Medjedovic	2:0 ✺
05.04.25	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Hugo Gaston	2:0 ✺
ATP Bucharest
02.04.25	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Filip Misolic	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 ?LWWL

Christopher OConnell - Camilo Ugo Carabelli: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide