Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - 1/64-finals

Date: 22 April 2026, Wednesday


	Damir Dzumhur		Mattia Bellucci

	1	2
	2	1.8	Watch
	2	1.8	Watch
	2.21	1.75
	2.08	1.75	Watch
	2.1	1.73	Watch
	2.02	1.82	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.07 ↑ (1.98)	1.78 ↓ (1.85)

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Damir Dzumhur
46.2%

Mattia Bellucci
53.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.4%

51.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.9%

48.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Damir Dzumhur has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Mattia Bellucci has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Damir Dzumhur than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Damir Dzumhur, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mattia Bellucci than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Mattia Bellucci, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
94.4%	0%	5.6%

Damir Dzumhur - Mattia Bellucci Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Dzumhur (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Damir Dzumhur will win (17 of 17 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Dzumhur is ranked ATP: 84. Bellucci is ranked ATP: 78.

In recent matches, Dzumhur has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Bellucci is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Dzumhur may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

We predict that Bellucci will win today's game, with odds of 1.79.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Dzumhur won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:3. (average 1.3:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Mattia Bellucci - the odds 1.85 are the expected chance of winning is 51.61%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Damir Dzumhur
ATP Munich
11.04.26	Damir Dzumhur - Vitaliy Sachko	0:2 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
07.04.26	Damir Dzumhur - Fabian Marozsan	Canceled ✺
05.04.26	Damir Dzumhur - Alexander Blockx	0:2 ✺
04.04.26	Damir Dzumhur - Nicolai Budkov Kjaer	2:0 ✺
ATP Bucharest
03.04.26	Damir Dzumhur - Botic Van De Zandschulp	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 L?LWL
- Mattia Bellucci
ATP Challenger
14.04.26	Jonas Forejtek - Mattia Bellucci	2:0 ✺
11.04.26	Mattia Bellucci - Dino Prizmic	2:0 ✺
10.04.26	Stefano Travaglia - Mattia Bellucci	0:2 ✺
08.04.26	Andrea Guerrieri - Mattia Bellucci	0:2 ✺
06.04.26	Dusan Lajovic - Mattia Bellucci	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Cincinnati
08.08.25	Mattia Bellucci - Damir Dzumhur	0:2
ATP Madrid
24.04.25	Damir Dzumhur - Mattia Bellucci	2:1
ATP Challenger
04.08.22	Damir Dzumhur - Mattia Bellucci	0:2

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