Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Barcelona - Qualification, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 11 April 2026, Saturday


	Francesco Maestrelli		Daniel Merida Aguilar

	1	2
			Watch
	3.1	1.32	Watch
	3.16	1.39
	3.76	1.25	Watch
	3	1.36	Watch
	2.99	1.34	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.2 ↑ (2.57)	1.33 ↓ (1.45)

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Francesco Maestrelli
29.4%

Daniel Merida Aguilar
70.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.1%

63.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.6%

61.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Francesco Maestrelli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Francesco Maestrelli's form might have worsened.

Daniel Merida Aguilar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Daniel Merida Aguilar's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Francesco Maestrelli than the current prediction. (+9.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Francesco Maestrelli, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Daniel Merida Aguilar than the current prediction. (-9.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Daniel Merida Aguilar, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Francesco Maestrelli - Daniel Merida Aguilar Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Merida Aguilar (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

#ad

Preview

Maestrelli is ranked ATP: 113. Merida Aguilar is ranked ATP: 101.

Maestrelli has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Merida Aguilar's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Maestrelli may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Merida Aguilar is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Maestrelli won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Francesco Maestrelli - the odds 2.57 are the expected chance of winning is 36.07%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Daniel Merida Aguilar - the odds 1.45 are the expected chance of winning is 63.93%, but this team recently wins 100% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Francesco Maestrelli
ATP Monte Carlo
04.04.26	Francesco Maestrelli - Alexander Blockx	0:2 ✺
ATP Bucharest
31.03.26	Francesco Maestrelli - Botic Van De Zandschulp	0:2 ✺
ATP Miami
16.03.26	Murphy Cassone - Francesco Maestrelli	2:0 ✺
16.03.26	Yosuke Watanuki - Francesco Maestrelli	Canceled ✺
ATP Challenger
10.03.26	Francesco Maestrelli - Mattia Bellucci	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1 LLL?L
- Daniel Merida Aguilar
ATP Challenger
07.04.26	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Joel Schwaerzler	Canceled ✺
ATP Bucharest
05.04.26	Mariano Navone - Daniel Merida Aguilar	2:1 ✺
04.04.26	Fabian Marozsan - Daniel Merida Aguilar	1:2 ✺
03.04.26	Titouan Droguet - Daniel Merida Aguilar	2:1 ✺
03.04.26	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Adrian Mannarino	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 ?LWLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
08.02.26	Francesco Maestrelli - Daniel Merida Aguilar	0:2

Francesco Maestrelli - Daniel Merida Aguilar: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide