Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Villena, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 1 October 2025, Wednesday


	Daniel Merida Aguilar		Maks Kasnikowski

	1	2
	1.36	3	Watch
			Watch
	1.4	2.7	Watch
	1.44	2.85
	1.41	2.69	Watch
	1.44	2.66	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.41 ↓ (1.67)	2.78 ↑ (2.05)

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Daniel Merida Aguilar
66.3%

Maks Kasnikowski
33.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.2%

44.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56%

44%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Daniel Merida Aguilar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Daniel Merida Aguilar's performance.

Maks Kasnikowski has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Maks Kasnikowski might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Daniel Merida Aguilar than the current prediction. (-10.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Daniel Merida Aguilar that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Maks Kasnikowski than the current prediction. (+10.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Maks Kasnikowski could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.5%	0%	37.5%

Daniel Merida Aguilar - Maks Kasnikowski Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Merida Aguilar will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Kasnikowski will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Merida Aguilar: 29% – 96%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Kasnikowski (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +3.5 Games - Kasnikowski (1.81) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Kasnikowski (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Merida Aguilar is ranked ATP: 173. Kasnikowski is ranked ATP: 547.

Recent performances by Merida Aguilar have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Kasnikowski is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Kasnikowski may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Merida Aguilar is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Daniel Merida Aguilar - the odds 1.67 are the expected chance of winning is 55.18%, but this team recently wins 45% of matches with these odds.

Maks Kasnikowski - the odds 2.05 are the expected chance of winning is 44.82%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Daniel Merida Aguilar
ATP Challenger
30.09.25	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Ryan Peniston	2:0 ✺
26.09.25	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Vilius Gaubas	0:2 ✺
24.09.25	Tiago Pereira - Daniel Merida Aguilar	0:2 ✺
22.09.25	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Jerome Kym	2:1 ✺
15.09.25	Thiago Monteiro - Daniel Merida Aguilar	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WLWWL
- Maks Kasnikowski
ATP Challenger
30.09.25	Albert Ramos-Vinolas - Maks Kasnikowski	0:2 ✺
29.09.25	Luca Potenza - Maks Kasnikowski	1:2 ✺
28.09.25	Enrique Carrascosa Diaz - Maks Kasnikowski	1:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
29.08.25	Fryderyk Lechno-Wasiutynski - Maks Kasnikowski	2:1 ✺
28.08.25	Tom Zeuch - Maks Kasnikowski	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 WWWLW

Daniel Merida Aguilar - Maks Kasnikowski: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide