Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Lisbon, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 24 September 2025, Wednesday


	Tiago Pereira		Daniel Merida Aguilar

	1	2
	3.4	1.3	Watch
			Watch
	3.3	1.27	Watch
	3.11	1.38
	3.04	1.34	Watch
	3.08	1.34	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.19 ↑ (2.47)	1.33 ↓ (1.46)

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tiago Pereira
29.4%

Daniel Merida Aguilar
70.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.2%

62.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.8%

65.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tiago Pereira has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Tiago Pereira's form might have worsened.

Daniel Merida Aguilar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Daniel Merida Aguilar's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tiago Pereira than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Tiago Pereira, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Daniel Merida Aguilar than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Daniel Merida Aguilar, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Tiago Pereira - Daniel Merida Aguilar Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -3.5 Games - Merida Aguilar (1.72) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Merida Aguilar (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Pereira is ranked ATP: 283. Merida Aguilar is ranked ATP: 166.

Both players have been playing unpredictably.

Merida Aguilar will hold a modest advantage in this match.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Daniel Merida Aguilar - the odds 1.46 are the expected chance of winning is 62.85%, but this team recently wins 100% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tiago Pereira
ATP Challenger
22.09.25	Elmer Moller - Tiago Pereira	0:2 ✺
11.09.25	Vitaliy Sachko - Tiago Pereira	2:1 ✺
09.09.25	Tiago Pereira - Andrew Paulson	Paulson A. retired ✺
02.09.25	Joel Schwaerzler - Tiago Pereira	2:1 ✺
25.08.25	Tiago Pereira - Matej Dodig	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 WL?LL
- Daniel Merida Aguilar
ATP Challenger
22.09.25	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Jerome Kym	2:1 ✺
15.09.25	Thiago Monteiro - Daniel Merida Aguilar	2:0 ✺
05.09.25	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Ignacio Buse	1:2 ✺
04.09.25	David Jorda Sanchis - Daniel Merida Aguilar	0:2 ✺
03.09.25	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Jaime Faria	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WLLWW

Tiago Pereira - Daniel Merida Aguilar: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide