Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Lisbon, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 26 September 2025, Friday


	Daniel Merida Aguilar		Vilius Gaubas

	1	2
	2	1.73	Watch
			Watch
	2	1.7	Watch
	2.04	1.84
	3.25	1.31	Watch
			Watch
	1.98	1.76	Watch
	2.15	1.69
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.24 ↑ (2.15)	1.67 ↓ (1.69)

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Daniel Merida Aguilar
42.8%

Vilius Gaubas
57.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44%

56%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.3%

56.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Daniel Merida Aguilar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Vilius Gaubas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Daniel Merida Aguilar than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vilius Gaubas than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.1%	0%	42.9%

Daniel Merida Aguilar - Vilius Gaubas Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Merida Aguilar will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Gaubas will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Daniel Merida Aguilar will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Merida Aguilar is ranked ATP: 173. Gaubas is ranked ATP: 165.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Gaubas may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Merida Aguilar won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 3:7. (average 0.8:1.8).

Last Results with these Odds

Daniel Merida Aguilar - the odds 2.15 are the expected chance of winning is 44.01%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Daniel Merida Aguilar
ATP Challenger
24.09.25	Tiago Pereira - Daniel Merida Aguilar	0:2 ✺
22.09.25	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Jerome Kym	2:1 ✺
15.09.25	Thiago Monteiro - Daniel Merida Aguilar	2:0 ✺
05.09.25	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Ignacio Buse	1:2 ✺
04.09.25	David Jorda Sanchis - Daniel Merida Aguilar	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WWLLW
- Vilius Gaubas
ATP Challenger
24.09.25	Frederico Ferreira Silva - Vilius Gaubas	0:2 ✺
22.09.25	Vilius Gaubas - Carlos Taberner	2:0 ✺
17.09.25	Vilius Gaubas - Roman Andres Burruchaga	0:2 ✺
Davis Cup World Group II
13.09.25	Vilius Gaubas - Alexis Klegou	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
04.09.25	Genaro Alberto Olivieri - Vilius Gaubas	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
22.04.24	Vilius Gaubas - Daniel Merida Aguilar	2:0
ITF Tournaments
17.02.24	Vilius Gaubas - Daniel Merida Aguilar	1:2
14.11.23	Vilius Gaubas - Daniel Merida Aguilar	2:0
27.07.23	Vilius Gaubas - Daniel Merida Aguilar	2:1

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