Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Alicante, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 30 September 2025, Tuesday


	Daniel Merida Aguilar		Ryan Peniston

	1	2
	1.4	2.75	Watch
			Watch
	1.46	2.55	Watch
	1.56	2.47
	1.55	2.33	Watch
	1.21	3.77	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.44 ↓ (1.83)	2.77 ↑ (1.83)

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Daniel Merida Aguilar
65.9%

Ryan Peniston
34.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.8%

51.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Daniel Merida Aguilar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Daniel Merida Aguilar's performance.

Ryan Peniston has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-15.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ryan Peniston might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Daniel Merida Aguilar than the current prediction. (-17.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Daniel Merida Aguilar that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ryan Peniston than the current prediction. (+17.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ryan Peniston could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Daniel Merida Aguilar - Ryan Peniston Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Merida Aguilar (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 22.5 Games - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +3.5 Games - Peniston (1.72) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Daniel Merida Aguilar will win (10 of 10 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Merida Aguilar (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Peniston (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Merida Aguilar is ranked ATP: 173. Peniston is ranked ATP: 233.

Both players have been playing unpredictably.

Merida Aguilar may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Merida Aguilar might have a minor edge in this game.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Ryan Peniston - the odds 1.83 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Daniel Merida Aguilar
ATP Challenger
26.09.25	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Vilius Gaubas	0:2 ✺
24.09.25	Tiago Pereira - Daniel Merida Aguilar	0:2 ✺
22.09.25	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Jerome Kym	2:1 ✺
15.09.25	Thiago Monteiro - Daniel Merida Aguilar	2:0 ✺
05.09.25	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Ignacio Buse	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LWWLL
- Ryan Peniston
ITF Tournaments
20.09.25	Ryan Peniston - Mario Gonzalez Fernandez	1:2 ✺
19.09.25	Ryan Peniston - Juan Alejandro Hernandez	2:0 ✺
18.09.25	Ryan Peniston - Sebastian Fanselow	2:1 ✺
17.09.25	Ryan Peniston - Lui Maxted	2:1 ✺
14.09.25	Ryan Peniston - Remy Bertola	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LWWWL

Daniel Merida Aguilar - Ryan Peniston: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide