Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Lyon, clay - Final

Date: 15 June 2025, Sunday


	Daniel Merida Aguilar		Marco Trungelliti

	1	2
	1.83	1.83	Watch
	1.95	1.75	Watch
			Watch
	2.08	1.81
			Watch
	1.83	1.83	Watch
	1.95	1.78	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.93 ↓ (2.01)	1.8 ↑ (1.74)

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Daniel Merida Aguilar
48.3%

Marco Trungelliti
51.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.4%

53.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.6%

54.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Daniel Merida Aguilar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

Marco Trungelliti has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Daniel Merida Aguilar than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Marco Trungelliti than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	0%	77.8%

Daniel Merida Aguilar - Marco Trungelliti Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Merida Aguilar will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Trungelliti will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Trungelliti: 50.6% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Marco Trungelliti will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Merida Aguilar is ranked ATP: 292. Trungelliti is ranked ATP: 188.

Right now, both players are showing solid form.

Merida Aguilar may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

We predict that Trungelliti will win today's game, with odds of 1.8.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Merida Aguilar won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 0:4. (average 0:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Daniel Merida Aguilar
ATP Challenger
14.06.25	Gauthier Onclin - Daniel Merida Aguilar	0:2 ✺
13.06.25	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Luca Van Assche	2:0 ✺
11.06.25	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Henri Squire	2:1 ✺
09.06.25	Kyrian Jacquet - Daniel Merida Aguilar	0:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
05.06.25	Iliyan Radulov - Daniel Merida Aguilar	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.4 WWWWL
- Marco Trungelliti
ATP Challenger
14.06.25	Marco Trungelliti - Clement Tabur	2:0 ✺
13.06.25	Marco Trungelliti - Dimitar Kuzmanov	2:1 ✺
12.06.25	Marco Trungelliti - Ivan Gakhov	2:1 ✺
10.06.25	Marco Trungelliti - Alejandro Moro Canas	2:0 ✺
07.06.25	Marco Trungelliti - Ignacio Buse	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
07.04.25	Marco Trungelliti - Daniel Merida Aguilar	2:0
ATP Gijon
08.10.22	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Marco Trungelliti	0:2

Daniel Merida Aguilar - Marco Trungelliti: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide