Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Villena, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 4 October 2025, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Slovakia	Arena sport 2


	Daniel Merida Aguilar		Hugo Grenier

	1	2
	1.73	2	Watch
	1.75	1.95	Watch
	1.73	2
	1.82	2.04
	2.00	1.75	Watch
			Watch
	1.74	2.01	Watch
	1.76	2.04
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.79 ↑ (1.53)	1.97 ↓ (2.33)

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Daniel Merida Aguilar
52.4%

Hugo Grenier
47.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.4%

39.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.1%

34.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Daniel Merida Aguilar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Daniel Merida Aguilar's form might have worsened.

Hugo Grenier has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Hugo Grenier's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Daniel Merida Aguilar than the current prediction. (+12.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Daniel Merida Aguilar, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hugo Grenier than the current prediction. (-12.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Hugo Grenier, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Daniel Merida Aguilar - Hugo Grenier Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Grenier (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Merida Aguilar is ranked ATP: 173. Grenier is ranked ATP: 191.

Merida Aguilar is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Grenier has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Merida Aguilar may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Hugo Grenier - the odds 2.33 are the expected chance of winning is 39.62%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Daniel Merida Aguilar
ATP Challenger
03.10.25	Daniel Merida Aguilar - George Loffhagen	2:1 ✺
01.10.25	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Maks Kasnikowski	2:0 ✺
30.09.25	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Ryan Peniston	2:0 ✺
26.09.25	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Vilius Gaubas	0:2 ✺
24.09.25	Tiago Pereira - Daniel Merida Aguilar	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WWWLW
- Hugo Grenier
ATP Challenger
03.10.25	Hugo Grenier - Tom Gentzsch	2:0 ✺
01.10.25	Moez Echargui - Hugo Grenier	0:2 ✺
30.09.25	Hynek Barton - Hugo Grenier	0:2 ✺
23.09.25	Lukas Klein - Hugo Grenier	2:1 ✺
19.09.25	Mark Lajal - Hugo Grenier	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WWWLL

Daniel Merida Aguilar - Hugo Grenier: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide