Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Valencia, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 7 October 2025, Tuesday


	Sumit Nagal		Daniel Merida Aguilar

	1	2
	2.2	1.62	Watch
			Watch
	2.18	1.61	Watch
	2.27	1.65
	2.22	1.60	Watch
	2.21	1.63	Watch
	1.83	1.83
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.15 ↑ (1.83)	1.66 ↓ (1.83)

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sumit Nagal
43.5%

Daniel Merida Aguilar
56.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.5%

48.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sumit Nagal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sumit Nagal's form might have worsened.

Daniel Merida Aguilar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Daniel Merida Aguilar's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sumit Nagal than the current prediction. (+8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sumit Nagal, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Daniel Merida Aguilar than the current prediction. (-8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Daniel Merida Aguilar, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	0%	20%

Sumit Nagal - Daniel Merida Aguilar Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Nagal will win (votes: 4 - 80%). Merida Aguilar will win (votes: 1 - 20%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Nagal (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Nagal is ranked ATP: 289. Merida Aguilar is ranked ATP: 169.

Nagal is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Merida Aguilar's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Nagal may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Last Results with these Odds

Sumit Nagal - the odds 1.83 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Daniel Merida Aguilar - the odds 1.83 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 59% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sumit Nagal
ATP Challenger
06.10.25	Sumit Nagal - Alexander Ritschard	2:1 ✺
05.10.25	Sumit Nagal - Andres Santamarta Roig	2:0 ✺
03.10.25	Luka Mikrut - Sumit Nagal	2:1 ✺
01.10.25	Sumit Nagal - Roberto Carballes Baena	Carballes Baena R. retired ✺
30.09.25	Frederico Ferreira Silva - Sumit Nagal	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WWL?W
- Daniel Merida Aguilar
ATP Challenger
04.10.25	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Hugo Grenier	0:2 ✺
03.10.25	Daniel Merida Aguilar - George Loffhagen	2:1 ✺
01.10.25	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Maks Kasnikowski	2:0 ✺
30.09.25	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Ryan Peniston	2:0 ✺
26.09.25	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Vilius Gaubas	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 LWWWL

Sumit Nagal - Daniel Merida Aguilar: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide