Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: US Open, hard - 1/32-finals

Date: 2 September 2026, Wednesday

Location: USTA Billie Jean King NTC (New York, NY)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1
Czech-republic	HBO Max
Germany	Laola1


	Daniel Merida Aguilar		Andrey Rublev

	1	2
	2.20	1.67	Watch
	2.20	1.65
	2.30	1.62
	2.38	1.67
	2.15	1.7	Watch
	2.30	1.63
	2.29	1.65	Watch
	2.20	1.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.25 ↓ (2.48)	1.66 ↑ (1.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 39.00

The best margin for this event is 1.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Daniel Merida Aguilar
42.4%

Andrey Rublev
57.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38%

62%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.5%

62.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Daniel Merida Aguilar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

Andrey Rublev has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Daniel Merida Aguilar than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Andrey Rublev than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	0%	40%

Daniel Merida Aguilar - Andrey Rublev Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Merida Aguilar will win (votes: 6 - 60%). Rublev will win (votes: 4 - 40%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Merida Aguilar: 29.6% – 90.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Rublev (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.5 Sets - over (1.43) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:3

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Preview

Merida Aguilar is ranked ATP: 39. Rublev is ranked ATP: 24.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Rublev may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Andrey Rublev - the odds 1.52 are the expected chance of winning is 61.98%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Daniel Merida Aguilar
ATP US Open
30.08.26	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Marton Fucsovics	3:0 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
18.08.26	Taylor Harry Fritz - Daniel Merida Aguilar	2:0 ✺
16.08.26	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Zizou Bergs	2:0 ✺
14.08.26	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Marin Cilic	2:1 ✺
ATP Montreal
11.08.26	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Learner Tien	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WLWWL
- Andrey Rublev
ATP US Open
31.08.26	Marin Cilic - Andrey Rublev	Canceled ✺
31.08.26	Otto Virtanen - Andrey Rublev	2:3 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
18.08.26	Andrey Rublev - Nuno Borges	0:2 ✺
16.08.26	Andrey Rublev - Pablo Carreno-Busta	2:0 ✺
ATP Montreal
04.08.26	Juncheng Shang - Andrey Rublev	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 ?WLWL

Daniel Merida Aguilar - Andrey Rublev: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide