Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Monte Carlo, clay - 1/32-finals

Date: 7 April 2025, Monday


	Daniil Medvedev		Karen Khachanov

	1	2
	1.87	1.87	Watch
	1.8	1.98	Watch
	1.85	1.9	Watch
	1.88	1.91	Watch
	1.8	2	Watch
	1.82	2.01	Watch
	1.85	1.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.84 ↑ (1.45)	1.94 ↓ (2.78)

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Daniil Medvedev
51.3%

Karen Khachanov
48.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.7%

34.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.2%

31.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Daniil Medvedev has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Daniil Medvedev's form might have worsened.

Karen Khachanov has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Karen Khachanov's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Daniil Medvedev than the current prediction. (+16.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Daniil Medvedev, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Karen Khachanov than the current prediction. (-16.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Karen Khachanov, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
44.8%	0%	55.2%

Daniil Medvedev - Karen Khachanov Predictions

Users Predictions: 28 users predict this event. Medvedev will win (votes: 12 - 42.9%). Khachanov will win (votes: 16 - 57.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Khachanov: 38.8% – 75.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Karen Khachanov will win (10 of 12 users predict this - 83.33%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Medvedev is ranked ATP: 11. Khachanov is ranked ATP: 26.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Medvedev won 4.

The game of competitors is shaky now.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both players are almost equal.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Medvedev won 6 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 14:8 (average 1.8:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Daniil Medvedev
ATP Miami
21.03.25	Daniil Medvedev - Jaume Munar	0:2 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
15.03.25	Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune - Daniil Medvedev	2:0 ✺
13.03.25	Arthur Fils - Daniil Medvedev	1:2 ✺
12.03.25	Tommy Paul - Daniil Medvedev	0:2 ✺
09.03.25	Alex Michelsen - Daniil Medvedev	Michelsen A. retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LLWW?
- Karen Khachanov
ATP Miami
23.03.25	Grigor Dimitrov - Karen Khachanov	2:1 ✺
21.03.25	Nick Kyrgios - Karen Khachanov	0:2 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
10.03.25	Karen Khachanov - Ben Shelton	0:2 ✺
08.03.25	Karen Khachanov - Jakub Mensik	2:1 ✺
ATP Dubai
26.02.25	Stefanos Tsitsipas - Karen Khachanov	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Doha
18.02.25	Karen Khachanov - Daniil Medvedev	1:2
ATP Monte Carlo
11.04.24	Karen Khachanov - Daniil Medvedev	2:0
ATP Vienna
27.10.23	Daniil Medvedev - Karen Khachanov	2:1
ATP Miami
31.03.23	Daniil Medvedev - Karen Khachanov	2:1
ATP Adelaide
05.01.23	Daniil Medvedev - Karen Khachanov	2:0
ATP Montreal
10.08.19	Karen Khachanov - Daniil Medvedev	0:2
ATP Moscow
20.10.18	Karen Khachanov - Daniil Medvedev	2:1

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