Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 27 April 2026, Monday

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV


	Karen Khachanov		Jakub Mensik

	1	2
	2.38	1.57	Watch
			Watch
	2.39	1.58
	2.56	1.59
	2.48	1.54	Watch
	2.38	1.57
	2.45	1.61	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.44 ↑ (1.82)	1.58 ↓ (1.97)

The best margin for this event is 2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Karen Khachanov
39.3%

Jakub Mensik
60.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52%

48%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.2%

43.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Karen Khachanov has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Karen Khachanov's form might have worsened.

Jakub Mensik has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Jakub Mensik's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Karen Khachanov than the current prediction. (+16.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Karen Khachanov, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jakub Mensik than the current prediction. (-16.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Jakub Mensik, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10.3%	0%	89.7%

Karen Khachanov - Jakub Mensik Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 Games - Mensik (1.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 Sets - Mensik (1.23) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

H/A, 1st Set - Mensik (1.67) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Jakub Mensik will win (34 of 38 users predict this - 89.47%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.71% – 99.23%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Jakub Mensik will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Mensik (votes: 6 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Khachanov is ranked ATP: 16. Mensik is ranked ATP: 27.

Khachanov has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Mensik has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Mensik may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Khachanov won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1. (average 2:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Karen Khachanov
ATP Madrid
25.04.26	Karen Khachanov - Adam Walton	2:0 ✺
ATP Barcelona
14.04.26	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Karen Khachanov	2:0 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
06.04.26	Arthur Rinderknech - Karen Khachanov	2:0 ✺
Exhibition UTS Championship Men
04.04.26	Grigor Dimitrov - Karen Khachanov	2:1 ✺
03.04.26	Casper Ruud - Karen Khachanov	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 WLLLL
- Jakub Mensik
ATP Madrid
25.04.26	Martin Damm - Jakub Mensik	0:2 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
07.04.26	Jakub Mensik - Fabian Marozsan	Canceled ✺
ATP Miami
23.03.26	Francis Tiafoe - Jakub Mensik	2:1 ✺
21.03.26	Adam Walton - Jakub Mensik	1:2 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
08.03.26	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Jakub Mensik	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 W?LWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Indian Wells
08.03.25	Karen Khachanov - Jakub Mensik	2:1
ATP Doha
24.02.24	Jakub Mensik - Karen Khachanov	0:2

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