Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Wimbledon, grass - 1/64-finals

Date: 29 June 2026, Monday

Location: All England Club (London)

Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	HBO Max
Denmark	HBO Max
Finland	HBO Max
France	HBO Max
Montenegro	HBO Max
Netherlands	HBO Max
Norway	HBO Max
Poland	HBO Max
Romania	HBO Max
Serbia	HBO Max
Slovenia	HBO Max
Spain	HBO Max
Sweden	HBO Max


	Denis Shapovalov		Pablo Carreno-Busta

	1	2
	1.36	3.2	Watch
	1.36	3.10
	1.37	3
	1.41	3.16
	1.37	3.01	Watch
	1.39	3.05
	1.36	3.2	Watch
	1.4	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.38 ↓ (1.53)	3.09 ↑ (2.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 38.50

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Denis Shapovalov
69.2%

Pablo Carreno-Busta
30.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.8%

39.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.6%

35.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Denis Shapovalov has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Denis Shapovalov's performance.

Pablo Carreno-Busta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Pablo Carreno-Busta might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Denis Shapovalov than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pablo Carreno-Busta than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.1%	0%	42.9%

Denis Shapovalov - Pablo Carreno Busta Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Shapovalov will win (votes: 8 - 57.1%). Carreno Busta will win (votes: 6 - 42.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Shapovalov: 31.2% – 83%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Shapovalov (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +5.5 Games - Carreno Busta (1.70) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Shapovalov (votes: 1 - 50%). Carreno Busta (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:0

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Preview

Shapovalov is ranked ATP: 41. Carreno Busta is ranked ATP: 71.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Shapovalov won 1.

Shapovalov is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Carreno Busta has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Shapovalov may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Shapovalov is considered a favorite.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Shapovalov won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 7:14. (average 0.9:1.8).

Last Results with these Odds

Denis Shapovalov - the odds 1.53 are the expected chance of winning is 60.77%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Denis Shapovalov
ATP London
17.06.26	Alex De Minaur - Denis Shapovalov	2:0 ✺
15.06.26	Jack Pinnington Jones - Denis Shapovalov	1:2 ✺
ATP Hertogenbosch
08.06.26	Marin Cilic - Denis Shapovalov	2:1 ✺
ATP Roland Garros
26.05.26	Jaime Faria - Denis Shapovalov	3:0 ✺
ATP Roma
07.05.26	Denis Shapovalov - Mariano Navone	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LWLLL
- Pablo Carreno-Busta
ATP Roland Garros
31.05.26	Rafael Jodar - Pablo Carreno-Busta	3:2 ✺
29.05.26	Thiago Augustin Tirante - Pablo Carreno-Busta	1:3 ✺
27.05.26	Thanasi Kokkinakis - Pablo Carreno-Busta	Kokkinakis T. Retired ✺
25.05.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Jiri Lehecka	3:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
15.05.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Jaume Munar	Munar J. Walkover ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 LW?W?

Latest Head to Head

ATP Dubai
24.02.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Denis Shapovalov	2:0
ATP Paris
02.11.22	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Denis Shapovalov	2:1
ATP Cup
09.01.22	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Denis Shapovalov	0:2
ATP US Open
08.09.20	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Denis Shapovalov	3:2
ATP Vienna
23.10.19	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Denis Shapovalov	2:0
ATP Chengdu
28.09.19	Denis Shapovalov - Pablo Carreno-Busta	0:2
ATP Roma
13.05.19	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Denis Shapovalov	0:2

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