Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: French Open, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 29 May 2026, Friday

Location: Stade Roland-Garros (Paris)

Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	HBO Max
Denmark	HBO Max
Finland	HBO Max
Montenegro	HBO Max
Netherlands	HBO Max
Norway	HBO Max
Romania	HBO Max
Serbia	HBO Max
Slovenia	HBO Max
Sweden	HBO Max


	Thiago Augustin Tirante		Pablo Carreno-Busta

	1	2
	1.4	3	Watch
	1.41	2.95
	1.42	3.15
	1.46	2.65	Watch
	1.4	2.9
	1.43	3.07	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.42 ↓ (1.5)	2.95 ↑ (2.71)

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Thiago Augustin Tirante
67.5%

Pablo Carreno-Busta
32.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.3%

35.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.5%

42.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Thiago Augustin Tirante has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

Pablo Carreno-Busta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Thiago Augustin Tirante than the current prediction. (-10%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Thiago Augustin Tirante that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pablo Carreno-Busta than the current prediction. (+10%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Pablo Carreno-Busta could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
64%	0%	36%

Thiago Augustin Tirante - Pablo Carreno Busta Predictions

Users Predictions: 25 users predict this event. Tirante will win (votes: 16 - 64%). Carreno Busta will win (votes: 9 - 36%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Tirante: 45.2% – 82.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tirante (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 Sets - Tirante (1.77) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tirante (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:0

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Preview

Tirante is ranked ATP: 60. Carreno Busta is ranked ATP: 89.

Tirante has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Carreno Busta is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

In this match, Tirante is the team to beat.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Tirante won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Thiago Augustin Tirante - the odds 1.5 are the expected chance of winning is 64.35%, but this team recently wins 80% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Thiago Augustin Tirante
ATP Roland Garros
27.05.26	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Thiago Augustin Tirante	1:3 ✺
24.05.26	Pablo Llamas Ruiz - Thiago Augustin Tirante	1:3 ✺
ATP Geneva
18.05.26	Arthur Rinderknech - Thiago Augustin Tirante	2:0 ✺
ATP Roma
12.05.26	Thiago Augustin Tirante - Daniil Medvedev	0:2 ✺
11.05.26	Flavio Cobolli - Thiago Augustin Tirante	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 WWLLW
- Pablo Carreno-Busta
ATP Roland Garros
27.05.26	Thanasi Kokkinakis - Pablo Carreno-Busta	Kokkinakis T. Retired ✺
25.05.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Jiri Lehecka	3:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
15.05.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Jaume Munar	Munar J. Walkover ✺
14.05.26	Sebastian Baez - Pablo Carreno-Busta	1:2 ✺
12.05.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Francisco Comesana	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.7 ?W?WW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Roma
05.05.25	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Thiago Augustin Tirante	Tirante T. A. retired

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