Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Rome, clay - 1/64-finals

Date: 7 May 2026, Thursday


	Denis Shapovalov		Mariano Navone

	1	2
	2.63	1.5	Watch
	2.54	1.5
	2.7	1.45	Watch
	2.75	1.53
	2.55	1.51	Watch
	2.5	1.53
	2.57	1.51	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.61 ↑ (2.44)	1.5 ↓ (1.52)

The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Denis Shapovalov
36.6%

Mariano Navone
63.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.4%

61.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.5%

60.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Denis Shapovalov has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Mariano Navone has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Denis Shapovalov than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mariano Navone than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	0%	87.5%

Denis Shapovalov - Mariano Navone Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 Sets - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 21 Games - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Mariano Navone will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Shapovalov is ranked ATP: 37. Navone is ranked ATP: 44.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Navone may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Navone will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Shapovalov won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Denis Shapovalov
ATP Madrid
25.04.26	Nicolai Budkov Kjaer - Denis Shapovalov	2:0 ✺
ATP Munich
17.04.26	Denis Shapovalov - Alex Molcan	0:2 ✺
16.04.26	Denis Shapovalov - Fabian Marozsan	2:0 ✺
14.04.26	Tallon Griekspoor - Denis Shapovalov	1:2 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
06.04.26	Denis Shapovalov - Alexander Blockx	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 LLWWL
- Mariano Navone
ATP Challenger
30.04.26	Mariano Navone - Matteo Berrettini	0:2 ✺
ATP Madrid
25.04.26	Mariano Navone - Alexander Zverev	1:2 ✺
23.04.26	Nuno Borges - Mariano Navone	0:2 ✺
ATP Barcelona
14.04.26	Mariano Navone - Andrey Rublev	0:2 ✺
ATP Bucharest
05.04.26	Mariano Navone - Daniel Merida Aguilar	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Wimbledon
01.07.25	Mariano Navone - Denis Shapovalov	3:1

Denis Shapovalov - Mariano Navone: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide