Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Zhangjiagang, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 26 August 2025, Tuesday


	Denis Yevseyev		Hiroki Moriya

	1	2
	1.62	2.2	Watch
	1.65	2.1	Watch
	1.61	2.17	Watch
	1.73	2.15
	1.75	2.00	Watch
	1.59	2.16	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.66 ↓ (1.91)	2.13 ↑ (1.84)

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Denis Yevseyev
56.2%

Hiroki Moriya
43.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49%

51%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.9%

54.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Denis Yevseyev has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Denis Yevseyev's performance.

Hiroki Moriya has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Hiroki Moriya might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Denis Yevseyev than the current prediction. (-10.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Denis Yevseyev that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hiroki Moriya than the current prediction. (+10.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Hiroki Moriya could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Denis Yevseyev - Hiroki Moriya Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Yevseyev will win (votes: 4 - 50%). Moriya will win (votes: 4 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Yevseyev: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Yevseyev is ranked ATP: 318. Moriya is ranked ATP: 372.

Yevseyev has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Moriya is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Moriya may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Yevseyev won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Denis Yevseyev - the odds 1.91 are the expected chance of winning is 49%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Hiroki Moriya - the odds 1.84 are the expected chance of winning is 51%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Denis Yevseyev
ATP Challenger
18.08.25	Denis Yevseyev - Marat Sharipov	Canceled
13.08.25	Murkel Alejandro Dellien Velasco - Denis Yevseyev	2:0 ✺
12.08.25	Denis Yevseyev - Bernabe Zapata Miralles	2:0 ✺
05.08.25	Jerome Kym - Denis Yevseyev	2:0 ✺
29.07.25	Edas Butvilas - Denis Yevseyev	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 ?LWLL
- Hiroki Moriya
ITF Tournaments
13.08.25	Philip Sekulic - Hiroki Moriya	2:0 ✺
12.08.25	M Rifqi Fitriadi - Hiroki Moriya	0:2 ✺
05.08.25	Yanki Erel - Hiroki Moriya	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
20.07.25	Tsung-Hao Huang - Hiroki Moriya	2:1 ✺
14.07.25	Alfredo Perez - Hiroki Moriya	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
27.04.21	Denis Yevseyev - Hiroki Moriya	0:2

Denis Yevseyev - Hiroki Moriya: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide