Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Hersonissos 2 (Greece), hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 14 March 2025, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: Hersonissos 2 (Greece) 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard


	Dennis Novak		Christoph Negritu

	1	2
	1.5	2.5	Watch
	1.55	2.3	Watch
	1.47	2.45	Watch
	1.6	2.44
	1.58	2.36	Watch
	1.57	2.25	Watch
	1.61	2.23	Watch
	1.47	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.54 ↓ (1.69)	2.37 ↑ (2.07)

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dennis Novak
60.6%

Christoph Negritu
39.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

55.1%

44.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.9%

46.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dennis Novak has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Dennis Novak's performance.

Christoph Negritu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Christoph Negritu might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dennis Novak than the current prediction. (-6.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Dennis Novak that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Christoph Negritu than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Christoph Negritu could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	0%	14.3%

Dennis Novak - Christoph Negritu Predictions

Users Predictions: Dennis Novak will win (12 of 14 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 67.38% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Novak is ranked ATP: 366. Negritu is ranked ATP: 320.

Novak is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Negritu is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Novak could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both players.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Dennis Novak
ATP Challenger
12.03.25	Tung-Lin Wu - Dennis Novak	0:2 ✺
10.03.25	Juan Carlos Prado Angelo - Dennis Novak	0:2 ✺
07.03.25	Dennis Novak - Zsombor Piros	0:2 ✺
06.03.25	Timofey Skatov - Dennis Novak	1:2 ✺
04.03.25	Pavlo Tsitsipas - Dennis Novak	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WWLWW
- Christoph Negritu
ATP Challenger
12.03.25	Stefanos Sakellaridis - Christoph Negritu	0:2 ✺
10.03.25	Christoph Negritu - Lorenzo Giustino	2:1 ✺
06.03.25	Edas Butvilas - Christoph Negritu	2:1 ✺
04.03.25	Matthew Dellavedova - Christoph Negritu	0:2 ✺
18.02.25	Christoph Negritu - Max Hans Rehberg	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WWLWL

Dennis Novak - Christoph Negritu

Match Info

Current Win Probability

Who will win by Users?

Dennis Novak - Christoph Negritu Predictions

Preview

Form

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