Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Rome (Italy), clay - 1/32-finals

Date: 11 May 2024, Saturday

Referee: Lahyani M. (Swe)


	Dominik Koepfer		Francis Tiafoe

	1	2
	1.91	1.91	Watch
	1.91	1.85
	1.88	1.92	Watch
	1.94	1.96
	1.93	1.97
	2	1.8	Watch
	1.92	1.89	Watch
	1.91	1.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.93 ↓ (2.27)	1.9 ↑ (1.64)

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dominik Koepfer
49.7%

Francis Tiafoe
50.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.9%

58.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.1%

60.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dominik Koepfer has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Dominik Koepfer's performance.

Francis Tiafoe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Francis Tiafoe might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dominik Koepfer than the current prediction. (-10.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Dominik Koepfer that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Francis Tiafoe than the current prediction. (+10.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Francis Tiafoe could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
52.2%	4.3%	43.5%

Dominik Koepfer - Francis Tiafoe Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Koepfer will win (votes: 12 - 54.5%). Tiafoe will win (votes: 10 - 45.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Koepfer: 33.7% – 75.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Koepfer is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Tiafoe is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Tiafoe could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both players.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Koepfer won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Dominik Koepfer
ATP Roma
09.05.24	Dominik Koepfer - Andrea Vavassori	2:0 ✺
ATP Madrid
25.04.24	Dominik Koepfer - Roberto Carballes Baena	1:2 ✺
ATP Munich
16.04.24	Christian Garin - Dominik Koepfer	2:0 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
07.04.24	Dominik Koepfer - Tallon Griekspoor	1:2 ✺
ATP Estoril
03.04.24	Dominik Koepfer - Pablo Llamas Ruiz	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 WLLLL
- Francis Tiafoe
ATP Challenger
02.05.24	Francis Tiafoe - Federico Coria	0:2 ✺
ATP Madrid
27.04.24	Pedro Cachin - Francis Tiafoe	2:1 ✺
ATP Houston
07.04.24	Ben Shelton - Francis Tiafoe	2:1 ✺
06.04.24	Francis Tiafoe - Luciano Darderi	2:0 ✺
05.04.24	Jordan Thompson - Francis Tiafoe	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Acapulco
28.02.24	Francis Tiafoe - Dominik Koepfer	1:2

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