Match Info

WTA - SINGLES: US Open, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 1 September 2025, Monday

Location: USTA Billie Jean King NTC (New York, NY)

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	Ekaterina Alexandrova		Iga Swiatek

	1	2
	4	1.25	Watch
	3.4	1.3
	3.64	1.27
	4.05	1.27
	3.68	1.28	Watch
	3.6	1.29
	3.83	1.31	Watch
	2.95	1.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.64 ↑ (2.99)	1.3 ↓ (1.43)

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ekaterina Alexandrova
26.2%

Iga Swiatek
73.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.3%

67.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.5%

62.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ekaterina Alexandrova has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ekaterina Alexandrova's form might have worsened.

Iga Swiatek has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Iga Swiatek's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ekaterina Alexandrova than the current prediction. (+11.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ekaterina Alexandrova, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Iga Swiatek than the current prediction. (-11.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Iga Swiatek, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
21.9%	0%	78.1%

Ekaterina Alexandrova - Iga Swiatek Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -4.5 Games - Swiatek (1.86) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.5 Sets - Swiatek (1.80) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Iga Swiatek will win (25 of 32 users predict this - 78.13%).
Confidence interval (95%): 63.81% – 92.45%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Iga Swiatek will win (11 of 11 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Swiatek (votes: 13 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Alexandrova is ranked WTA: 12. Swiatek is ranked WTA: 2.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Alexandrova won 1.

Alexandrova has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Swiatek is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Alexandrova may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Swiatek is a strong favorite.

We predict that Swiatek will win today's game, with odds of 1.41.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Alexandrova won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 6:8. (average 1:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ekaterina Alexandrova
WTA US Open
30.08.25	Ekaterina Alexandrova - Laura Siegemund	2:0 ✺
28.08.25	Ekaterina Alexandrova - Xin Yu Wang	2:0 ✺
26.08.25	Ekaterina Alexandrova - Anastasija Sevastova	2:0 ✺
WTA Monterrey
23.08.25	Diana Shnaider - Ekaterina Alexandrova	2:1 ✺
23.08.25	Marie Bouzkova - Ekaterina Alexandrova	Bouzkova M. retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WWWL?
- Iga Swiatek
WTA US Open
30.08.25	Anna Kalinskaya - Iga Swiatek	0:2 ✺
28.08.25	Suzan Lamens - Iga Swiatek	1:2 ✺
26.08.25	Emiliana Arango - Iga Swiatek	0:2 ✺
WTA Cincinnati
18.08.25	Iga Swiatek - Jasmine Paolini	2:0 ✺
17.08.25	Elena Rybakina - Iga Swiatek	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

WTA Bad Homburg
26.06.25	Ekaterina Alexandrova - Iga Swiatek	0:2
WTA Miami
25.03.24	Iga Swiatek - Ekaterina Alexandrova	0:2
WTA Doha
14.02.24	Iga Swiatek - Ekaterina Alexandrova	2:0
WTA Madrid
01.05.23	Iga Swiatek - Ekaterina Alexandrova	2:1
WTA Ostrava
08.10.22	Iga Swiatek - Ekaterina Alexandrova	2:1
WTA Melbourne Gippsland Trophy
02.02.21	Ekaterina Alexandrova - Iga Swiatek	2:0

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