Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Rio de Janeiro - Qualification, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 14 February 2026, Saturday


	Elmer Moller		Francesco Passaro

	1	2
			Watch
	2.41	1.5	Watch
	2.57	1.54
	2.48	1.51	Watch
	2.25	1.57
	2.54	1.52	Watch
	2.5	1.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.46 ↑ (1.9)	1.52 ↓ (1.9)

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Elmer Moller
38.3%

Francesco Passaro
61.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.8%

43.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Elmer Moller has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Elmer Moller's form might have worsened.

Francesco Passaro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Francesco Passaro's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Elmer Moller than the current prediction. (+18.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Elmer Moller, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Francesco Passaro than the current prediction. (-18.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Francesco Passaro, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.1%	0%	88.9%

Elmer Moller - Francesco Passaro Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Moller (votes: 1 - 50%). Passaro (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 Sets - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Francesco Passaro will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.36% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Moller is ranked ATP: 121. Passaro is ranked ATP: 159.

Both players are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Moller may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Francesco Passaro - the odds 1.9 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Elmer Moller
Davis Cup World Group
07.02.26	Dino Prizmic - Elmer Moller	2:0 ✺
06.02.26	Matej Dodig - Elmer Moller	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
27.01.26	Elmer Moller - Chris Rodesch	Moller E. retired ✺
ATP Australian Open
13.01.26	Elmer Moller - Elias Ymer	1:2 ✺
12.01.26	Elmer Moller - Marc Polmans	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 LW?LW
- Francesco Passaro
ATP Buenos Aires
10.02.26	Ignacio Buse - Francesco Passaro	2:1 ✺
08.02.26	Francesco Passaro - Marco Cecchinato	2:1 ✺
07.02.26	Francesco Passaro - Nicolas Kicker	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
23.01.26	Daniil Glinka - Francesco Passaro	2:0 ✺
22.01.26	Stefan Kozlov - Francesco Passaro	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 LWWLW

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