Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Australian Open - Qualification, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 12 January 2026, Monday

Location: Melbourne Park (Melbourne)


	Elmer Moller		Marc Polmans

	1	2
	1.73	2	Watch
	1.73	1.99	Watch
	1.8	1.97	Watch
	1.73	2
	1.77	2.08	Watch
	1.8	1.93
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.76 ↓ (1.96)	2 ↑ (1.79)

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Elmer Moller
53.1%

Marc Polmans
46.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.7%

52.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.2%

56.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Elmer Moller has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Elmer Moller's performance.

Marc Polmans has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Marc Polmans might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Elmer Moller than the current prediction. (-9.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Elmer Moller that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Marc Polmans than the current prediction. (+9.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Marc Polmans could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	0%	20%

Elmer Moller - Marc Polmans Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Moller will win (votes: 4 - 80%). Polmans will win (votes: 1 - 20%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 Sets - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Elmer Moller will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Moller is ranked ATP: 119. Polmans is ranked ATP: 391.

Moller is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Polmans has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Polmans may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Elmer Moller
ATP Challenger
05.01.26	Elmer Moller - Jaime Faria	0:2 ✺
30.11.25	Elmer Moller - Andrej Martin	2:0 ✺
29.11.25	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Elmer Moller	0:2 ✺
28.11.25	Elmer Moller - Carlos Lopez Montagud	2:0 ✺
27.11.25	Elmer Moller - Daniel Michalski	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 LWWWW
- Marc Polmans
ATP Challenger
04.01.26	Marc Polmans - Jack Pinnington Jones	1:2 ✺
03.01.26	Alex Bolt - Marc Polmans	0:2 ✺
26.11.25	James McCabe - Marc Polmans	2:0 ✺
24.11.25	Hayato Matsuoka - Marc Polmans	1:2 ✺
17.11.25	Tung-Lin Wu - Marc Polmans	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 LWLWL

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