Match Info

WTA - SINGLES: Beijing, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 29 September 2025, Monday 🏁 Finished

Location: Beijing 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Bulgaria	10:50	Max Sport 1
Germany	09:50	Sky Sport Tennis
Slovakia	09:50	Voyo
United Kingdom	08:50	Sky Sports Tennis


	Emma Raducanu		Jessica Pegula

	1	2
	2.2	1.67	Watch
	2.22	1.67	Watch
	2.33	1.68
	1.51	2.57	Watch
	2.24	1.66	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.1 ↓ (2.4)	1.85 ↑ (1.6)

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Emma Raducanu
46.8%

Jessica Pegula
53.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

40%

60%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.5%

61.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Emma Raducanu has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Emma Raducanu's performance.

Jessica Pegula has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Jessica Pegula might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Emma Raducanu than the current prediction. (-8.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Emma Raducanu that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jessica Pegula than the current prediction. (+8.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Jessica Pegula could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
54.5%	0%	45.5%

Emma Raducanu - Jessica Pegula Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Raducanu will win (votes: 6 - 54.5%). Pegula will win (votes: 5 - 45.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Raducanu: 25.1% – 83.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Raducanu (votes: 4 - 50%). Pegula (votes: 4 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Raducanu is ranked WTA: 32. Pegula is ranked WTA: 7.

Both players are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Raducanu may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Pegula could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Raducanu won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:5. (average 1:1.7).

Last Results with these Odds

Jessica Pegula - the odds 1.6 are the expected chance of winning is 60.03%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Emma Raducanu
WTA Beijing
27.09.25	Emma Raducanu - Cristina Bucsa	2:0 ✺
WTA Seoul
18.09.25	Barbora Krejcikova - Emma Raducanu	2:1 ✺
17.09.25	Jaqueline Adina Cristian - Emma Raducanu	0:2 ✺
WTA US Open
29.08.25	Elena Rybakina - Emma Raducanu	2:0 ✺
27.08.25	Emma Raducanu - Janice Tjen	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 WLWLW
- Jessica Pegula
WTA Beijing
27.09.25	Ajla Tomljanovic - Jessica Pegula	0:2 ✺
WTA Billie Jean King Cup World Group
21.09.25	Jasmine Paolini - Jessica Pegula	2:0 ✺
20.09.25	Jessica Pegula - Katie Boulter	2:1 ✺
18.09.25	Elena Rybakina - Jessica Pegula	2:0 ✺
WTA US Open
04.09.25	Aryna Sabalenka - Jessica Pegula	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

WTA Miami
26.03.25	Emma Raducanu - Jessica Pegula	1:2
WTA Eastbourne
26.06.24	Emma Raducanu - Jessica Pegula	2:1
WTA Cincinnati
18.08.22	Jessica Pegula - Emma Raducanu	2:0

Emma Raducanu - Jessica Pegula