Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Almaty, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 17 October 2025, Friday


	Fabian Marozsan		Daniil Medvedev

	1	2
	2.75	1.44	Watch
			Watch
	2.75	1.44
	3.07	1.43
	3.08	1.35	Watch
			Watch
	2.81	1.46	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.89 ↓ (3.08)	1.42 ↑ (1.35)

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fabian Marozsan
33%

Daniil Medvedev
67%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.5%

69.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.2%

70.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fabian Marozsan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

Daniil Medvedev has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fabian Marozsan than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Daniil Medvedev than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

Fabian Marozsan - Daniil Medvedev Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Medvedev (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +3.5 Games - Marozsan (1.66) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 Sets - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 Sets - Marozsan (1.63) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Marozsan (votes: 2 - 50%). Medvedev (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Marozsan is ranked ATP: 52. Medvedev is ranked ATP: 14.

Recent performances by Marozsan have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Medvedev is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Marozsan may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Medvedev is a strong favorite.

We predict that Medvedev will win today's game, with odds of 1.35.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Marozsan won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fabian Marozsan
ATP Almaty
15.10.25	Brandon Nakashima - Fabian Marozsan	0:2 ✺
13.10.25	Fabian Marozsan - Luca Nardi	2:0 ✺
ATP Shanghai
03.10.25	Taylor Harry Fritz - Fabian Marozsan	2:1 ✺
01.10.25	Fabian Marozsan - Stanislas Wawrinka	2:1 ✺
ATP Beijing
29.09.25	Jannik Sinner - Fabian Marozsan	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WWLWL
- Daniil Medvedev
ATP Almaty
16.10.25	Adam Walton - Daniil Medvedev	0:2 ✺
ATP Shanghai
11.10.25	Daniil Medvedev - Arthur Rinderknech	1:2 ✺
10.10.25	Daniil Medvedev - Alex De Minaur	2:0 ✺
08.10.25	Learner Tien - Daniil Medvedev	1:2 ✺
06.10.25	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Daniil Medvedev	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP US Open
29.08.24	Fabian Marozsan - Daniil Medvedev	0:3

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