Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Shanghai, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 8 October 2025, Wednesday


	Learner Tien		Daniil Medvedev

	1	2
	3.4	1.33	Watch
			Watch
	3.25	1.35	Watch
	3.39	1.37
	3.32	1.31	Watch
			Watch
	3.4	1.34	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.35 ↑ (2.78)	1.34 ↓ (1.44)

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Learner Tien
28.6%

Daniil Medvedev
71.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.2%

65.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.2%

67.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Learner Tien has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Learner Tien's form might have worsened.

Daniil Medvedev has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Daniil Medvedev's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Learner Tien than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Daniil Medvedev than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
76%	0%	24%

Learner Tien - Daniil Medvedev Predictions

Users Predictions: 25 users predict this event. Tien will win (votes: 19 - 76%). Medvedev will win (votes: 6 - 24%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Tien: 59.3% – 92.7%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5 Sets - Tien (1.81) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +3.5 Games - Tien (2.02) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -3 Games - Medvedev (1.60) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Learner Tien will win (13 of 16 users predict this - 81.25%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 19 Selected Experts predict this event. Tien (votes: 15 - 78.9%). Medvedev (votes: 4 - 21.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Tien is ranked ATP: 36. Medvedev is ranked ATP: 18.

Now, both players are in good form.

Medvedev may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Medvedev is seen as the favorite.

We predict that Medvedev will win today's game, with odds of 1.33.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Tien won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Learner Tien
ATP Shanghai
06.10.25	Learner Tien - Cameron Norrie	2:0 ✺
04.10.25	Corentin Moutet - Learner Tien	1:2 ✺
03.10.25	Learner Tien - Miomir Kecmanovic	2:1 ✺
ATP Beijing
01.10.25	Jannik Sinner - Learner Tien	2:0 ✺
30.09.25	Learner Tien - Daniil Medvedev	Medvedev D. retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 WWWL?
- Daniil Medvedev
ATP Shanghai
06.10.25	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Daniil Medvedev	0:2 ✺
04.10.25	Dalibor Svrcina - Daniil Medvedev	0:2 ✺
ATP Beijing
30.09.25	Learner Tien - Daniil Medvedev	Medvedev D. retired ✺
29.09.25	Daniil Medvedev - Alexander Zverev	2:0 ✺
28.09.25	Daniil Medvedev - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WW?WW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Beijing
30.09.25	Learner Tien - Daniil Medvedev	Medvedev D. retired
ATP Australian Open
16.01.25	Learner Tien - Daniil Medvedev	3:2

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