Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: US Open, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 3 September 2025, Wednesday

Location: Arthur Ashe Stadium (New York, NY)

Where to Watch on TV:


Belgium	HBO Max, HBO Max
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	HBO Max
Bulgaria	HBO Max
Croatia	HBO Max
Czech-republic	HBO Max
Denmark	HBO Max
Finland	HBO Max
France	HBO Max
Hungary	HBO Max
Moldova	HBO Max
Montenegro	HBO Max
Netherlands	HBO Max
North-macedonia	HBO Max
Norway	HBO Max
Poland	HBO Max
Romania	HBO Max
Serbia	HBO Max
Slovenia	HBO Max
Spain	HBO Max
Sweden	HBO Max


	Felix Aliassime-Auger		Alex De Minaur

	1	2
	2.3	1.62	Watch
	2.25	1.65
	2.25	1.61	Watch
	2.38	1.64
	2.27	1.63	Watch
	2.3	1.62
	2.33	1.68	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.3 ↓ (2.39)	1.64 ↑ (1.62)

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Felix Aliassime-Auger
41.6%

Alex De Minaur
58.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.3%

59.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.1%

61.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Felix Aliassime-Auger has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Alex De Minaur has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Felix Aliassime-Auger than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alex De Minaur than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
76.3%	0%	23.7%

Felix Aliassime Auger - Alex De Minaur Predictions

Users Predictions: 70 users predict this event. Aliassime-Auger will win (votes: 56 - 80%). De Minaur will win (votes: 14 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Aliassime-Auger: 70.6% – 89.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.5 Sets - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 35.5 Games - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +2.5 Games - Aliassime-Auger (1.85) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 Sets - Aliassime-Auger (1.63) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Felix Aliassime-Auger will win (36 of 43 users predict this - 83.72%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 46 Selected Experts predict this event. Aliassime-Auger (votes: 39 - 84.8%). De Minaur (votes: 7 - 15.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:3

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Preview

Aliassime-Auger is ranked ATP: 27. De Minaur is ranked ATP: 8.

Aliassime-Auger is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, De Minaur has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

De Minaur might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aliassime-Auger won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:4. (average 1.6:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Felix Aliassime-Auger
ATP US Open
01.09.25	Felix Aliassime-Auger - Andrey Rublev	3:0 ✺
30.08.25	Alexander Zverev - Felix Aliassime-Auger	1:3 ✺
28.08.25	Roman Safiullin - Felix Aliassime-Auger	0:3 ✺
26.08.25	Billy Harris - Felix Aliassime-Auger	0:3 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
14.08.25	Jannik Sinner - Felix Aliassime-Auger	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 WWWWL
- Alex De Minaur
ATP US Open
01.09.25	Leandro Riedi - Alex De Minaur	0:3 ✺
30.08.25	Daniel Altmaier - Alex De Minaur	Altmaier D. retired ✺
28.08.25	Shintaro Mochizuki - Alex De Minaur	0:3 ✺
26.08.25	Christopher OConnell - Alex De Minaur	0:3 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
10.08.25	Alex De Minaur - Reilly Opelka	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 W?WWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Roma
13.05.24	Felix Aliassime-Auger - Alex De Minaur	1:2
Davis Cup World Group
27.11.22	Felix Aliassime-Auger - Alex De Minaur	2:0
ATP Cincinnati
17.08.22	Felix Aliassime-Auger - Alex De Minaur	2:0
ATP Challenger
11.05.18	Felix Aliassime-Auger - Alex De Minaur	1:2
17.03.17	Alex De Minaur - Felix Aliassime-Auger	0:2

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