Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Francavilla, clay - Final

Date: 11 May 2025, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Francavilla 🌤️ ... 🔴 Clay


	Francesco Maestrelli		Valentin Vacherot

	1	2
	3.4	1.3	Watch
	3.1	1.33	Watch
	3.2	1.3	Watch
	3.44	1.34
	3.28	1.33	Watch
	3.25	1.33	Watch
	3.26	1.31	Watch
	3.2	1.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.27 ↑ (2.72)	1.32 ↓ (1.41)

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Francesco Maestrelli
28.7%

Valentin Vacherot
71.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

34.1%

65.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.1%

67.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Francesco Maestrelli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Francesco Maestrelli's form might have worsened.

Valentin Vacherot has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Valentin Vacherot's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Francesco Maestrelli than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Valentin Vacherot than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	0%	75%

Francesco Maestrelli - Valentin Vacherot Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Maestrelli will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Vacherot will win (votes: 3 - 75%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Vacherot (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5 Sets - Maestrelli (1.87) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Maestrelli (votes: 1 - 50%). Vacherot (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Maestrelli is ranked ATP: 303. Vacherot is ranked ATP: 262.

In recent matches, Maestrelli has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Vacherot is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

In this match, Vacherot is seen as the favorite.

We predict that Vacherot will win today's game, with odds of 1.39.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Francesco Maestrelli
ATP Challenger
10.05.25	Dominic Stephan Stricker - Francesco Maestrelli	Stricker D. retired ✺
09.05.25	Benoit Paire - Francesco Maestrelli	1:2 ✺
08.05.25	Francesco Maestrelli - Radu Albot	2:1 ✺
06.05.25	Corentin Denolly - Francesco Maestrelli	0:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
01.05.25	Francesco Maestrelli - Lorenzo Carboni	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 ?WWWL
- Valentin Vacherot
ATP Challenger
10.05.25	Valentin Vacherot - Mark Lajal	2:1 ✺
09.05.25	Valentin Vacherot - Elias Ymer	2:1 ✺
08.05.25	Alexey Vatutin - Valentin Vacherot	0:2 ✺
06.05.25	Clement Chidekh - Valentin Vacherot	0:2 ✺
02.05.25	Valentin Vacherot - Borna Gojo	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WWWWL

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Francesco Maestrelli
ATP Challenger
30.10.26	Moise Kouame - Francesco Maestrelli
- Valentin Vacherot
ATP Basel
30.10.26	Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune - Valentin Vacherot	✺
29.10.26	Valentin Vacherot - Rafael Jodar	✺

Francesco Maestrelli - Valentin Vacherot